Bitcoin rally hinges on Wednesday Fed minutes after weak jobs report
Bitcoin rally hinges on Wednesday’s Fed minutes as traders try to confirm whether the Federal Reserve was already worried about a weakening US labor market.
The rebound started after the June jobs report: employers added 57,000 jobs in June (about half of expectations). Markets then repriced rate-hike odds lower, lifting Bitcoin from its July 1 21-month low below $58,000.
Key market data: Bitcoin traded near $64,000 on Tuesday, up ~11% from the low, after swinging more than $3,400 between roughly $61,250 and $64,659 on Monday. CME FedWatch pricing now implies about a 76% chance of a July 28–29 hold, with ~40% odds of an increase by December.
What traders will watch in the minutes (first full account under Chair Kevin Warsh): if officials discussed labor-market softness, credit strain, or risks of overtightening, the Bitcoin rally could get durable support. If the tone stays hawkish—focused on persistent inflation and conditions for another hike—price support may unwind quickly. The article notes the bar for disappointment is lower because the bounce came first.
ETF and on-chain fragility: US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $223M inflow on Thursday (largest since May), but funds are still down heavily since early May. On-chain risk appears as whale-sized deposits to exchanges around 49,000 BTC, adding potential sell pressure near technical levels. Options positioning clusters dealer gamma around $60,000 and $62,000.
Near-term levels cited: holding around $62,000 supports the rally; a break above the $64,700 area would confirm strength, while a slide toward $58,000 could signal a failed jobs-driven bounce.
Neutral
The headline risk is that the Bitcoin rally is currently “fundamentally pinned” to macro expectations that can be confirmed or refuted by the Fed minutes. That makes the next catalyst highly sensitive, not one-directional.
In the short term, a dovish interpretation (officials already flagging labor-market softness/risks of overtightening) could extend the rally quickly, especially because Bitcoin already priced in a lot of the relief from the weak jobs report. Conversely, a hawkish tone focused on persistent inflation would likely unwind the bounce even if the technicals look near support, since the market traded the rebound first and now needs justification.
Medium term, ETF flows add an element of stabilization but also fragility: the article notes a single large inflow can stop bleeding, yet sustained inflow sequences are needed to turn drawdowns into a clear “entry point” narrative. On-chain exchange deposits and options dealer-gamma clustering around $60k–$62k also suggest price could oscillate sharply around key levels.
This resembles prior “data-driven” rallies where macro catalysts (jobs/inflation prints) initially shift rate expectations, followed by volatility when the Fed’s communication clarifies the internal rationale. Net: traders should expect event-driven swings around $62,000 and $64,700 rather than a guaranteed trend change, so the expected impact is neutral with elevated volatility.