Bitcoin Rally Powered by Perpetual Futures Demand as Spot Demand Slumps

Published: 2026-04-23 06:20:53 |

CryptoQuant research head Julio Moreno says the recent Bitcoin rally is driven “entirely” by perpetual futures demand, while spot demand continues to shrink (though the decline is slowing). This divergence resembles the pattern seen earlier when Bitcoin climbed to about $98,000 in January. Moreno warns that if traders start taking profits while spot demand keeps contracting, the market faces a pullback risk. For traders, this implies the current upside may be more derivatives-led than spot-supported. When perpetual funding and open interest rise faster than spot volumes, downside can accelerate if leverage unwinds. Watch for signs of profit-taking (price stalling after spikes, momentum cooling) alongside continued weak spot activity.

Bearish

该消息偏利空，核心在于“比特币上涨的支撑来自永续合约需求，而非现货”。当比特币的上行动能主要由衍生品（永续合约）驱动、而现货持续萎缩时，市场更容易在获利了结后发生杠杆降温与流动性回撤。Moreno提到的1月行情（比特币升至约9.8万美元）也出现过类似的结构性背离：衍生品推动上涨、现货跟不上。短期来看，若价格快速上冲后出现动能回落，且现货需求没有同步改善，回撤的触发条件更充分（例如杠杆资金开始减仓、爆仓风险上升）。中长期则取决于现货能否重新恢复：只有当现货成交/资金流入企稳，衍生品的推升才更可能转化为持续趋势；否则，波动率可能维持在较高水平，反弹更可能以“冲高回落”的方式演化。