Bitcoin Rally Stalls as ETF Demand Weakens and $85,000 Caps Gains
Glassnode says Bitcoin’s rebound has lost momentum after repeated failures to break through the $84,000–$85,000 resistance zone. The price has slipped slightly below the average cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, while ETF flows have nearly flatlined: the funds recorded just $67 million in net inflows over the two weeks following a $653 million inflow on 19 October. Trading volume has also remained subdued.
Order-book support has shifted lower. Binance buy orders are concentrated around $78,000–$79,000, near the $77,900 True Market Mean. A daily close below that level could expose Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis at about $75,800. On the upside, sustained daily closes above $85,000 would be an initial sign that resistance is weakening; Glassnode says a move above $87,500 accompanied by stronger ETF inflows and volume would provide stronger confirmation of renewed demand.
The rebound has also underperformed Bitcoin’s 2023 recovery at a comparable point, and the share of leading altcoins trading above their 200-day averages has fallen from 88% to 66%. However, realized losses on recent pullbacks have declined, suggesting limited selling pressure. With Bitcoin volatility near historically low levels, Glassnode identifies the 28 October Federal Reserve decision as a potential catalyst for a sharp move in either direction.
Neutral
The report presents mixed signals, so its overall market implication is neutral, with near-term downside risks. Bitcoin faces weak spot ETF demand, subdued trading volume, repeated rejection at $84,000–$85,000 and declining altcoin breadth. A daily close below the $77,900 True Market Mean could prompt traders to watch the $75,800 short-term holder cost basis as the next support. Low volatility can also amplify moves once a catalyst arrives, and the Federal Reserve decision may affect risk appetite across crypto markets.
There are countervailing signs: buy orders have accumulated around $78,000–$79,000, realized losses on pullbacks are shrinking, and the article does not describe a broad wave of panic selling. These factors could help limit immediate downside, but they do not yet confirm a durable recovery. As in earlier periods of compressed Bitcoin volatility, a sharp move may follow, but its direction depends on whether demand returns or macro conditions weigh on risk assets.
In the short term, traders may focus on ETF flows, volume and daily closes around $77,900 and $85,000. A break above resistance with renewed ETF inflows would improve the outlook; a loss of support could increase selling and expose lower cost-basis levels. Longer term, broader wallet accumulation and sustained spot demand would be needed to establish a stronger recovery. This is a market assessment, not a price prediction.