Bitcoin Rally Stalls as CryptoQuant Flags Profit-Taking and US Demand Drop
CryptoQuant says the Bitcoin rally has stalled after price failed to break above the 200-day moving average close near $82,430. The rejection mirrors the pattern seen in March 2022 before a sharp downturn.
On-chain metrics point to rising sell pressure. Unrealized profit margins hit 17.7% on May 5, the highest since June 2025, suggesting holders with large gains are more likely to distribute. CryptoQuant also reports the biggest profit-taking day since December 2025, with traders locking in 14.6K BTC (about $1.16B).
Demand indicators add to the caution: the Coinbase Premium has turned negative since late April, implying weaker US spot-buyer demand (Coinbase vs Binance pricing).
Despite the risk, CryptoQuant highlights a major support area around $70,000 (the traders’ on-chain realized price), where selling pressure may exhaust if the pullback continues. For traders, the setup favors a watch for continued downside/volatility below the 200-day MA, with $70K as the key pivot.
Bearish
CryptoQuant’s data base-case is bearish for the near term: Bitcoin failed to clear the 200-day moving average close (~$82,430), while profit-related signals point to elevated distribution risk. The key bearish ingredients are (1) rejection at a historically important trend metric (200-day MA), (2) unrealized profit margins at 17.7% (highest since June 2025), and (3) the largest profit-taking day since December 2025 (14.6K BTC). Together these often precede further drawdowns because supply from profit-taking can overwhelm dip-buying.
The Coinbase Premium turning negative strengthens that thesis by suggesting US demand is weakening versus Binance, which can reduce the probability of a clean breakout from consolidation. Importantly, CryptoQuant also points to a longer-shot “stabilizer”: support around $70K (realized price for short-term holders). That implies the market could see a pause or rebound if price tests that band and profit margins compress. Historically, the article notes the March 2022 playbook—200-day MA tests followed by renewed decline—which supports a bearish short-term bias, but with the expectation that $70K may become a tactical pivot rather than an immediate breakdown.
Net effect for traders: expect higher volatility and downside risk while below the 200-day MA; treat $70K as the key level to watch for selling exhaustion or confirmation of a deeper trend move.