Bitcoin range-bound as macro headwinds counter ETF inflows
Bitcoin has traded in a narrow range over the past two weeks, staying between $106,000 and $116,000. Long-term holders have sold about 104,000 BTC, creating supply pressure. Bitcoin ETF inflows remain healthy: US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $524 million in net inflows on November 11. Smart money traders also added over $8.5 million in net long positions, signaling cautious institutional optimism. However, macroeconomic uncertainty—driven by Federal Reserve policy divisions, a sudden drop in SOFR to 3.92%, and an ongoing US government shutdown—continues to weigh on market sentiment. Analysts warn that without sustained ETF inflows or fresh spot demand, Bitcoin could test support near $106,000 and potentially retest $100,000. Overall, Bitcoin’s price outlook for November remains neutral amid competing bullish and bearish forces.
Neutral
Bitcoin faces mixed signals. The $524 million ETF inflows and smart money long positions are bullish signs, suggesting renewed institutional interest. However, accelerated selling by long-term holders, combined with macro headwinds from Fed policy uncertainty, a liquidity-driven SOFR collapse and a US government shutdown, have kept prices range-bound. Historically, ETF inflow spikes in 2021 and 2023 triggered rallies, but excessive selling and unfavorable macro conditions eventually capped gains. In the short term, traders may remain cautious, leading to sideways price action. Long-term, sustained ETF demand could underpin Bitcoin’s recovery, but persistent macro risks pose a continued drag.