Bitcoin range depends on FOMC; STRC bid falters

Bitcoin has rebounded about 13.5% from its 5 June low to around $65k, but Bitfinex Alpha says the move is a “relief rally” driven by selling exhaustion and a macro reprieve—not fresh demand. Price action remains orderly: early-June range support has been reclaimed, while upside is capped below the $68,266 quarterly open. The focus is the first FOMC meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh, with a new “dot plot” and implications for rates. Bitfinex Alpha argues that until a spot bid returns, Bitcoin is more likely to stay in a range between the $60,000 “shelf” and $68,266. Key market indicators cited: open interest was flushed from a peak above $90B (Oct 2025) to about $42.6B by end-May and has not meaningfully rebuilt during the bounce. Funding has turned sticky/positive on an open-interest-weighted basis, suggesting leveraged longs are re-engaging—but this is vulnerable if the Fed is hawkish. A notable “bid” gauge is Strategy’s STRC (a bitcoin-backed preferred preferred-share structure). STRC trades below its $100 par (closed at $91.79 on 16 June). The yield is near 12.5% vs an 11.5% coupon, implying Strategy’s funding has become more expensive—i.e., the corporate treasury buying channel is weakening. Options data also points to tail-risk hedging: implied volatility rose and skew increased, with front-end skew (e.g., 1-week) jumping sharply as traders paid more for downside protection. Triggers to watch: sustained net inflows into spot BTC ETFs, STRC recovering toward par, open interest rising slower than price (spot-led), and acceptance above $68,266 would support a bullish breakout. A daily close back below $60,000 and the $59,200 cycle low, ETF outflow resumption, faster OI rebuilding, STRC deterioration, or a hawkish Fed/deteriorating macro would pressure Bitcoin down toward the ~$54,000 Realised Price floor.