Bitcoin Tests ETF Cost Basis as Macro Risks Weigh

| medium.com
Bitcoin weakened from around $84,123 to $83,366, falling below the $85,000 recovery threshold as rising Treasury yields, oil prices and a stronger US dollar pressured crypto markets. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to about 5.36%, while oil remained above $100 a barrel amid reports that Iran had closed the Strait of Hormuz. Crypto liquidations rose 235% to $547 million in 24 hours, mostly affecting leveraged long positions. Bitcoin is now only about 1.3% above the estimated $82,300 average cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETF buyers. A daily close below that level could bring the next on-chain support near $73,500 into focus. ETF flows have shifted: after $148.7 million in outflows ended a nine-session inflow streak, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $119 million in inflows on Tuesday, even as Bitcoin fell. Traders are watching whether buyers hold near breakeven or sell. A large sell wall around $85,000–$85,500 remains a near-term hurdle; Friday’s US payrolls report and further changes in yields and energy prices could add volatility. Ethereum fell to $2,568, with spot Ether ETFs logging a sixth consecutive day of outflows and about $408 million in cumulative withdrawals. This follows earlier reported daily outflows of $59.6 million. Bitmine, which holds 6.02 million ETH, says it plans to stop buying when its holdings reach 5% of supply. Cardano fell despite launching a mainnet token standard for regulated assets, which has not yet been adopted by an issuer; earlier reports also noted whale selling and Petrobras-related blockchain pilots. Solana, BNB and XRP also declined. For traders, persistent macro pressure and ETF selling pose downside risks, while sustained Bitcoin ETF inflows and a recovery above $85,000 could ease near-term selling.
Bearish
The combined near-term signal is bearish, particularly for Bitcoin. BTC fell despite a return to net inflows for US spot Bitcoin ETFs, showing that ETF demand has not yet offset macro-driven selling. Its price is close to the estimated $82,300 ETF buyer cost basis, and a daily close below that level could prompt further selling as traders reassess breakeven positions. The $85,000–$85,500 sell wall also limits recovery, while high Treasury yields, expensive oil and a stronger dollar tend to reduce appetite for risk assets. Elevated liquidations, concentrated in long positions, can amplify downward moves. ETH faces additional pressure from consecutive spot ETF outflows, while other major tokens also declined. The risk is not one-way. Tuesday’s Bitcoin ETF inflow suggests some institutional demand remains, and a sustained inflow trend alongside a reclaim of $85,000 could stabilize sentiment. If BTC loses $82,300, traders may focus on the approximately $73,500 on-chain support, though that level is not a guaranteed floor. Over a longer horizon, the direction of yields, energy prices, ETF flows and regulatory adoption of projects such as Cardano’s new token standard will help determine whether this is a temporary pullback or a deeper deterioration. Past market episodes show that high yields and leveraged liquidations can intensify short-term declines, while improving flows and a reversal in macro conditions can support recovery. Overall, the immediate balance of risks remains to the downside.