Bitcoin’s Rare Three-Signal Setup Points to Long-Term Bottom
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez says Bitcoin is flashing a “rare technical trifecta” seen before major bear-market bottoms in 2015, 2019, and 2022. The monthly setup includes: (1) RSI around 43.65, (2) Chande Momentum Oscillator near -71, and (3) Bitcoin testing its 50-month moving average. Martinez notes similar conditions preceded large macro rallies in prior cycles.
The article also cites on-chain context: MVRV and CVDD still suggest Bitcoin could revisit a $40,000–$50,000 area, described as a potential “sweep of the CVDD floor.” Still, Martinez frames the current zone as a “dominant accumulation” period and advises shifting from short positions to spot Bitcoin accumulation for a favorable risk-to-reward.
Another analyst, Doctor Profit, adds that traders waiting for a classic four-year cycle bottom in September/October may miss the move. He highlights a liquidity area near $54,000 and suggests Bitcoin could drop roughly 15% from current levels, but he does not expect Bitcoin to fall below $50,000. He recommends gradual buying rather than waiting for a single lower entry and says sentiment could improve ahead of the expected cycle low.
Potential sentiment catalysts mentioned include tokenized-stock rollouts involving BlackRock, NYSE, S&P, Nasdaq, and DTCC, plus speculation around the CLARITY Act in August.
Bullish
The article is bullish for Bitcoin because it highlights a historically recurring monthly “three-signal” cluster (RSI ~43.65, CMO ~-71, and price testing the 50-month moving average) that previously appeared near major cycle bottoms in 2015, 2019, and 2022. That pattern has tended to precede multi-month to multi-year upside expansions, so traders could interpret it as improving long-term downside-to-upside odds.
However, the same piece also flags on-chain metrics (MVRV/CVDD) that may still allow a deeper retest toward $40,000–$50,000 (“CVDD floor sweep”). Doctor Profit’s view—Bitcoin could still drop about 15% and risks remain around $54,000 liquidity—adds a short-term volatility risk. This means the setup may not trigger an immediate rally; instead, it could support a near-term range-to-correction profile before a larger trend reversal.
For trading, this news most likely shifts the bias from outright shorting toward selective spot accumulation or hedged dip-buying, while expecting potential shakeouts consistent with prior bottom formations (final sweeps before accumulation). Long-term, if the technical trifecta holds, it supports higher probability of a cycle low and subsequent momentum rebuild; short-term, traders should plan for mean-reversion and possible stop-hunts around key support bands.