Galaxy Research: Bitcoin’s $126K Nominal Peak Is Below $100K in 2020 Dollars
Galaxy Research director Alex Thorn says Bitcoin’s October nominal peak of about $126,000 does not exceed $100,000 when adjusted to 2020 dollars using the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). Thorn’s calculation — an inflation‑adjusted peak near $99,848 (2020 USD) — reflects roughly 20% erosion in dollar purchasing power since 2020 and uses CPI data (with a recent annual CPI around 2.7% as of November). The report argues that persistent inflation and a weaker dollar underpin narratives about currency debasement and influence investor psychology around symbolic thresholds such as $100,000. Analysts in the report note Bitcoin remains sensitive to Federal Reserve policy expectations: slow disinflation keeps the Fed cautious, while a softer dollar (DXY down ~11% YTD) supports flows into crypto. Thorn recommends traders and market participants prioritise inflation‑adjusted metrics and macro context when assessing all‑time highs to improve risk management and better interpret price action in volatile markets.
Neutral
The inflation‑adjusted framing is primarily analytical and affects investor perception rather than directly changing Bitcoin’s fundamentals. Short term: Traders may respond to the psychological narrative around the $100,000 threshold, possibly increasing volatility near that level as some participants reassess targets and risk (short‑term neutral to mildly bearish if confidence in the nominal all‑time high is reduced). Medium/long term: Real (inflation‑adjusted) price metrics could lead to more disciplined risk management and adjusted nominal targets, but they do not by themselves alter on‑chain fundamentals like adoption or supply. Macro drivers highlighted — CPI trajectory, Fed policy, and dollar strength — are the real price levers. If inflation stays higher for longer and the Fed remains hawkish, downward pressure on BTC is possible; conversely, continued dollar weakness and easier policy would support flows into crypto. Overall, the piece changes framing and trader behaviour more than the intrinsic price direction, so classify impact as neutral.