Realized Losses Dominate Bitcoin as Bear Pressure Mounts
On‑chain data shows realized losses are outweighing profits as Bitcoin trades below $70,000, signaling persistent bearish pressure. Darkfost’s analysis reports a realized profit‑to‑loss ratio near 0.25 (about $4 in losses for every $1 of profit), with the seven‑day average approaching levels typical of bear markets. Exchange and treasury selling — including large holders who bought near recent highs — has contributed to distribution volume and increased trading activity during the recent selloff. Price action broke intermediate support and slipped below short‑ and medium‑term moving averages; the $60,000–$65,000 range is identified as the next critical demand zone. While realized profits have recently started to slightly exceed losses after weeks of deficits, analysts view stabilization as tentative: a sustained recovery likely requires the purge of weaker hands and rebuilding of unrealized gains. Key points for traders: elevated realized losses indicate continued downside risk, watch volume for distribution vs. accumulation, monitor the $60k–$65k support band, and note moving averages remain bearish.
Bearish
Realized losses dominating on‑chain activity and a profit‑to‑loss ratio near 0.25 indicate that a large share of recent transactions are exits at a loss rather than profit taking. Historically, such skewed realized loss profiles align with late‑stage corrections or extended bearish phases (e.g., 2018 and mid‑2022 drawdowns) where distribution, deleveraging and panic selling prolong downtrends. Technicals reinforce the bearish read: BTC has broken intermediate support, sits below short/medium moving averages that are sloping down, and the selloff was accompanied by elevated volume—consistent with distribution rather than benign consolidation. Short term: expect heightened volatility and downside risk; traders should watch the $60k–$65k demand zone and on‑chain volume metrics (exchange outflows/inflows, realized loss/profit trends) for signs of capitulation or absorption. Long term: if selling exhausts weaker hands and unrealized profits rebuild, accumulation windows could form; however, until realized losses materially reverse and price reclaims key moving averages with sustained volume, the market structure favors further downside or protracted sideways action. Comparisons to past events (2018, 2022) suggest recoveries can take months after extended realized‑loss dominance, so risk management and position sizing are advised.