Bitcoin rebound is still a bear-market bounce, CryptoQuant warns
CryptoQuant (via The Block) says the recent Bitcoin rebound is a bear-market recovery, not a trend reversal. Bitcoin bounced about 10% from the prior week’s ~$57,700 bear-market low to around $63,000, reclaiming the $60,000 key support. Seasonal effects in July and improving demand are cited as support.
On-chain/market indicators show the bounce lacks the strength for a sustained uptrend. The 30-day total demand for Bitcoin recovered from a June contraction of roughly 650k BTC toward a more neutral level. Coinbase premium also improved from deeply negative levels early June to around -0.062. However, CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index is 20—far below the ~60 threshold associated with persistent bullish continuation—suggesting the market remains in a bearish regime. Traders should treat the current move as a Bitcoin rebound within a bear market rather than a confirmed reversal.
BTC price/positioning focus: watch whether $60,000 can hold and whether demand metrics and the Bull Score strengthen; otherwise, upside may fade like prior bear-market summer rallies (2018/2022 saw ~17–20% rebounds in July).
Bearish
CryptoQuant frames the move as a Bitcoin rebound within an ongoing bear market. Even though price action looks constructive (recovering $60,000 and gaining ~10%), the broader regime signals remain weak: the Bull Score Index is 20 versus the ~60 level typically linked to sustained bullish continuation. Demand metrics and Coinbase premium improved, but not enough to flip the market’s risk profile.
Historically, bear-market summer rallies can mirror this pattern—2018 and 2022 also saw sizable July rebounds (~17–20%) without immediate trend reversal. For traders, this often means higher probability of mean reversion and volatility: short-term bounces may continue, but rallies can stall if support (e.g., $60,000) fails or if demand/participation does not keep improving. Longer-term, confirmation would likely require a notable Bull Score upgrade and continued demand expansion; until then, the market setup remains vulnerable and rallies are less reliable.