Bitcoin Rebounds Above $78,000 as ETF Outflows Persist

Bitcoin fell to about $75,600 during the US midterm election results, then rebounded to roughly $78,300–$78,354 as volatility eased and equity futures recovered. The bounce has not yet confirmed a lasting uptrend: US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $1.16 billion in outflows over three sessions, including $115.6 million on November 3. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $95 million of that day’s outflows, down from $405.3 million the previous day. Options activity offered a more positive signal, with about $660 million in Bitcoin block trades on election day, including roughly $420 million in call purchases. However, some trades may have been hedges and do not prove renewed spot demand. Bitcoin’s implied volatility fell 6%, while Hyperliquid’s Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 perpetual futures saw $848 million in overnight volume—far above trading in tokenised spot equivalents. The latest analysis adds that election-related regulatory uncertainty could slow legislation such as the CLARITY Act, particularly affecting exchanges and token issuers, while Bitcoin may be less directly exposed. Analysts say macroeconomic factors—including the dollar, Treasury yields, Federal Reserve policy, technology-sector performance and institutional flows—are likely to matter more. Traders are watching resistance around $79,500–$80,000, then $81,319–$82,000, and support near $75,600–$76,000, with lower levels around $75,000 and the 200-day moving average near $73,200. US jobs data and ETF flows may help determine whether Bitcoin’s recovery can extend.