Bitcoin Rebounds as ETF Inflows and RWA Trading Grow

| odaily.news
Bitcoin rose 42% in the third quarter of 2026, recovering from July lows despite higher oil prices, renewed inflation concerns, a Federal Reserve rate increase and rising Treasury yields. Its price tracked the Nasdaq more closely than gold, underscoring Bitcoin’s sensitivity to interest rates and risk appetite. US spot Bitcoin ETF flows turned positive in September, supporting demand, while declining stablecoin supply and lagging altcoins suggested the rebound was concentrated rather than a broad crypto-market recovery. Crypto trading activity also picked up from July. Binance’s USDT-margined perpetual volume reached $1.61 trillion in September, while Hyperliquid’s crypto perpetual volume climbed to $188.4 billion. Stock-linked real-world asset (RWA) perpetual contracts were a major source of industry trading growth. Activity on new company-backed chains remained mixed. Robinhood Chain’s total value locked reached $1.12 billion by the end of September, but meme tokens and launchpad activity remained prominent; tokenized stocks represented about 6% of TVL in one estimate. Circle’s Arc network, launched with traditional finance and payments firms among its validators, saw activity focused mainly on USDC transfers and lending, while meme tokens featured among its most-traded assets. Across the market, tokens linked to protocol revenue and buybacks outperformed many altcoins. The latest figures reinforce a recovery led by Bitcoin and ETF demand, but its exposure to equity sentiment, rates and oil prices remains a risk for traders.
Bullish
The overall price signal for Bitcoin is bullish: it gained 42% in the quarter despite higher oil prices, a Federal Reserve rate increase and rising Treasury yields, while US spot Bitcoin ETF flows turned positive in September. These factors point to resilient demand and could encourage momentum traders to maintain or add long exposure, particularly if ETF inflows continue. Historically, sustained institutional inflows have helped support prices by providing a relatively steady source of buying. The signal is not unequivocal. Bitcoin’s close relationship with the Nasdaq suggests it may remain vulnerable to weaker equity sentiment, higher rates and renewed inflation or oil-price shocks. Falling stablecoin supply and underperforming altcoins also indicate that capital was not broadly returning to crypto. In the short term, these conditions could amplify volatility and leave Bitcoin exposed to reversals if risk appetite fades or ETF flows turn negative. Over the longer term, continued ETF demand could support prices, but the narrow nature of the recovery and macroeconomic sensitivity mean the rally is not yet proof of a durable, market-wide uptrend.