BTC Rebounds as Short-Term Options Bearishness Fades Ahead of Fed Decision
Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded to about $81,400 after briefly falling below $80,000, while Ether (ETH) also rose as markets awaited the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. CME FedWatch showed a roughly 92% chance that rates would remain unchanged. Traders are watching Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference for clues about the possibility of future rate hikes.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $176 million in net inflows on Tuesday, marking a second consecutive day of inflows. Crypto futures trading volume rose 7.5% to $163.2 billion over 24 hours, while open interest increased just 1.3%. Liquidations climbed 38% to $183.6 million. BTC gained 2.3% even as its open interest edged down 0.1%, suggesting the rebound was not driven by a major build-up in leverage. ETH rose 2.7%, with open interest up 1.7%. ZEC open interest jumped 14%, outpacing its 6.3% price gain.
Deribit data showed the one-week BTC put-call skew fell from nearly 10% a week earlier to below 1%, indicating weaker demand for near-term downside protection. However, one-, three- and six-month options remained tilted toward puts. The signals are mixed as traders weigh ETF inflows, derivatives positioning and the Fed outlook.
Neutral
The overall signal is neutral because the article combines supportive spot-market indicators with unresolved macroeconomic and derivatives risks. BTC’s rebound, two consecutive days of US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and the sharp decline in one-week put-call skew suggest that immediate selling pressure and demand for short-term hedges have eased. The relatively small increase in open interest also indicates that the bounce has not yet been accompanied by a broad surge in leverage, which may limit the risk of an immediate, crowded long trade.
However, the Federal Reserve decision remains a near-term catalyst. A rate hold is widely expected, so market direction may depend more on Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments about future policy. Longer-dated BTC options remain skewed toward puts, and liquidations rose substantially, showing that traders are still managing downside risk. In past rate-decision periods, crypto prices have often reacted less to the widely anticipated decision itself than to changes in policy guidance and interest-rate expectations.
In the short term, a reassuring Fed message and continued ETF inflows could support BTC and broader crypto sentiment. A hawkish outlook could quickly revive hedging demand and volatility. Over the longer term, sustained ETF inflows and a reduction in persistent downside protection would be constructive, but this report alone does not confirm a durable trend reversal. Traders may therefore monitor Fed guidance, ETF flows, options skew and open interest rather than treating the rebound as a decisive bullish signal.