Bitcoin Rebounds to ~$64K After Trump Iran Deal Bets Trigger Short Squeeze
Bitcoin staged a sharp rebound on 6/12, jumping from $61,944 to a peak of $63,933 and trading around $63,504 (+2.5%). Ethereum also bounced to about $1,669 (+2.22%). The move was accompanied by a major short squeeze: across crypto derivatives, 97,428 traders were liquidated in 24 hours, with total liquidation of $269.27M. Shorts accounted for $195.38M (about 72.6%) while longs were $73.88M. The largest single liquidation reportedly occurred on Binance BTCUSDT contracts (~$2.08M), highlighting how leveraged positioning was unwound.
Catalyst: Donald Trump said the planned airstrike against Iran was canceled and claimed a “great settlement” was reached, with paperwork to be completed soon and the potential reopening of the Hormuz Strait. That rhetoric reduced risk-off sentiment and boosted US equities (S&P 500 +1.75%, Nasdaq +2.54%), which spilled over into crypto.
However, traders are cautious. Market skepticism remains because Trump has repeatedly suggested deals were “imminent” without follow-through. On the macro side, US CPI (4.2% YoY) and PPI (6.5% YoY) underscored inflation pressure, and Fed commentary (via Nick Timiraos) leaned toward uncertainty about rate cuts. Additionally, spot Bitcoin ETF flows continued to show net outflows (over 13 straight sessions, reportedly totaling $4.3B+), adding structural pressure.
With the Fear & Greed Index still at 12 (“extreme fear”) and on-chain commentary suggesting Bitcoin may be in a “capitulation” phase, this rebound may be more of a position unwind than a confirmed trend reversal—especially ahead of the 6/16–17 FOMC decision.
Neutral
This news is net neutral for traders. The immediate tape is bullish because Bitcoin’s rebound was strong and mechanically driven by a large derivatives short squeeze (short liquidations dominate). Moves like this often create fast momentum and can trigger further long re-risking—especially when the Fear & Greed Index is already in “extreme fear.” However, the article also flags several bearish/limiting factors: (1) macro inflation prints (CPI/PPI) and Fed uncertainty raise the probability that rate-cut expectations won’t recover quickly, which typically pressures risk assets; (2) spot Bitcoin ETF flows remain in sustained net outflows, which usually limits longer-term bid; (3) on-chain commentary points to a possible capitulation/weak demand phase.
Historically, short-squeeze rebounds after negative weeks can sustain for days to a couple of weeks, but trend continuation usually requires either improving ETF/spot demand or a clear shift to dovish Fed expectations. Ahead of FOMC (6/16–17), traders may treat this as a tactical bounce rather than a confirmed breakout, using tighter risk controls and watching whether liquidations unwind is followed by real spot/institutional inflows.