Bitcoin bounce back reach ~64K dollar after Trump bet say him go get deal with Iran wey trigger short squeeze
Bitcoin do recover sharply on 6/12, jump from $61,944 to peak $63,933 and dey trade around $63,504 (+2.5%). Ethereum con bounce to about $1,669 (+2.22%). Di move come with big short squeeze: for crypto derivatives, 97,428 traders been liquidated inside 24 hours, total liquidation na $269.27M. Shorts be $195.38M (about 72.6%) while longs na $73.88M. The biggest single liquidation reportedly happen for Binance BTCUSDT contracts (~$2.08M), show how leverage positions bin unwind.
Catalyst: Donald Trump talk say the planned airstrike against Iran cancel and him claim say dem don reach a “great settlement”, paperwork go finish soon and maybe dem go reopen the Hormuz Strait. The talk reduce risk-off sentiment and boost US equities (S&P 500 +1.75%, Nasdaq +2.54%), wey carry over to crypto.
But traders dey cautious. Market still dey skeptical because Trump don many times talk deals dey “imminent” but no follow-through. For macro side, US CPI (4.2% YoY) and PPI (6.5% YoY) show inflation pressure, and Fed commentary (via Nick Timiraos) dey lean toward uncertainty about rate cuts. Also, spot Bitcoin ETF flows still show net outflows (over 13 straight sessions, reported total over $4.3B), adding structural pressure.
With Fear & Greed Index still at 12 (“extreme fear”) and on-chain commentary say Bitcoin fit dey for “capitulation” phase, this rebound fit be more of position unwind than confirmed trend reversal—especially before the 6/16–17 FOMC decision.
Neutral
This news na neutral for traders overall. Di immediate tape dey bullish because Bitcoin rebound strong and mechanically driven by big derivatives short squeeze (short liquidations dominate). Moves like this dey create fast momentum fit trigger more long re-risking—especially wen Fear & Greed Index don already dey for “extreme fear.” But article still point out some bearish/limiting factors: (1) macro inflation prints (CPI/PPI) and Fed uncertainty dey raise chance say rate-cut expectations no go recover quick, and that one normally pressure risk assets; (2) spot Bitcoin ETF flows still dey for sustained net outflows, wey normally limit longer-term bid; (3) on-chain commentary show say possible capitulation/weak demand phase dey. Historically, short-squeeze rebounds after negative weeks fit last days to couple weeks, but for trend to continue usually need either better ETF/spot demand or clear shift to dovish Fed expectations. Ahead of FOMC (6/16–17), traders fit treat this as tactical bounce not confirmed breakout, use tighter risk controls and watch whether liquidations unwind followed by real spot/institutional inflows.