Bitcoin rebounds above key support as institutional selling from ETF outflows persists
Bitcoin has rebounded above a key resistance/support area after several days of selling, but U.S.-based institutional selling remains a headwind, driven in part by continuous outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs. The Coinbase Premium Index — which compares Coinbase (institutional-heavy) to Binance (retail-heavy) prices — remains negative, indicating institutions are selling more aggressively than retail traders. The index plunged into deeper negative territory around Nov. 21, then eased slightly but has not turned positive. On-chain and chart indicators show Bitcoin bounced from the 200-day moving average on the three-day chart but still trades below the 50- and 100-day moving averages, which are sloping down. Sell-off volume exceeded bounce volume, suggesting sellers remain more aggressive. Market participants are watching whether this is a short-term relief bounce or the start of a sustained recovery. Key takeaways for traders: monitor ETF flows, Coinbase Premium trends, moving averages (200-, 100-, 50-day), and volume—persistent ETF outflows and negative Coinbase Premium signal continued institutional pressure that could cap rallies despite sporadic technical bounces.
Bearish
The news points to continued institutional selling driven by spot ETF outflows and a negative Coinbase Premium — both signals that U.S. institutions are net sellers. Technicals are mixed: a relief bounce from the 200-day moving average occurred, but BTC remains below the 50- and 100-day moving averages and sell-off volume exceeded bounce volume. Historically, ETF outflows and sustained negative exchange premiums have coincided with extended consolidation or downward pressure (for example, mid-2022 crypto downturns and periods after large institutional redemptions). Short-term impact: increased volatility with upside capped as institutions continue to sell into rallies. Traders should expect failed breakouts and look for confirmation (volume, positive shift in Coinbase Premium, and moving averages turning up) before taking bullish positions. Long-term impact: if ETF outflows persist, broader accumulation by retail or alternative institutional classes would be needed to absorb supply; absent that, price may remain range-bound or trend lower until selling abates or demand structurally increases.