BTC stalls at $90k as retail and ETF demand fade, on‑chain metrics warn

Published: 2025-12-30 02:24:13 |

Bitcoin (BTC) has stalled near the $90,000 level as both retail and institutional demand weaken and on‑chain activity softens. Capriole Investments’ net-BTC demand metric plunged into negative territory at -3,491 BTC — its lowest since October — after peaking around 18,700 BTC on Nov. 26. Coinbase premium, a proxy for U.S. retail buying, fell from 0.031 on Dec. 11 to about -0.08, signalling renewed U.S. sell pressure. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $782 million of outflows last week, reflecting diminished institutional appetite. Price action shows BTC about 6.6% below the year’s high (~$93,300) and repeatedly rejected at $90k since Dec. 15, with support near $84k. Technical analysts note a conditional bullish case: a monthly close above ~ $90,360 could confirm a hidden bullish divergence, and an 8‑hour expanding falling wedge breakout targets roughly $122,000. Key takeaways for traders: a sustained rally toward six‑figure prices likely requires restored retail demand (Coinbase premium turning positive), renewed spot ETF inflows, and a decisive reclaim of the $90k–$92k zone; absent those, BTC may consolidate in range and risk heightened volatility on directional moves. Primary keywords: Bitcoin, BTC price, Coinbase premium, spot BTC ETF flows, on‑chain demand.

Neutral

The combined evidence points to a neutral near-term impact on BTC price. Negative on‑chain metrics (Capriole’s demand) and a falling Coinbase premium indicate weaker U.S. retail buying, while sizable spot ETF outflows show institutional risk-off — factors that weigh bearishly. However, BTC remains supported near $84k and technical analysts identify conditional bullish setups (monthly close above ~$90,360 and an 8‑hour wedge breakout targeting ~$122k). That creates a bifurcated outlook: without renewed retail demand and ETF inflows, BTC is likely to consolidate or edge lower, increasing short-term downside risk. If demand indicators reverse and price decisively reclaims $90k–$92k, the technical patterns could fuel a renewed rally. For traders, that implies cautious positioning: avoid large directional exposure until clear demand recovery or a confirmed breakout, use tight risk controls, and watch Coinbase premium and ETF flows as key leading indicators for renewed upside.