Bitcoin reclaims 50-week EMA; ETF inflows surge, but $80K resistance tests
Bitcoin (BTC) ended its weekly candle above the 50-week EMA for the first time since late 2025, marking a bear-market trendline reclaim as traders look ahead to Jackson Hole and key US data. BTC last week climbed to about $79,550 (Bitstamp) and closed at $77,727, reclaiming the 50-week EMA around $77,752.
However, analysts warned the broader $80,000 area remains resistance. Trader Rekt Capital highlighted the risk of “bear market relief rally” dynamics and said follow-through is crucial over the coming weeks.
Onchain, CryptoQuant reported profitability improving: short-term holders (STHs) are now net profitable (just over 11%), while “new money” breakeven has risen to around $73,000. That makes the $68,000–$73,000 zone a key support band; losing it could push recent buyers back into losses.
Catalyst-wise, US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows totaled $1.9B over the past week (strongest since Oct 2025), with IBIT alone seeing more than $500M inflows on Thursday. This contrasts sharply with heavy June outflows (> $4.5B).
Macro remains a swing factor. Fed chair Kevin Warsh is set to speak at Jackson Hole, while markets watch Wednesday’s US PCE inflation print and the Treasury’s recent debt buyback program, which helped trigger a Bitcoin short squeeze and liquidate ~$3.1B in shorts over two days.
For traders, the immediate focus is whether Bitcoin can hold above the $77K-50EMA area and defend the $68K–$73K onchain support band while ETF-driven bid offsets resistance near $80K.
Neutral
The news is moderately constructive but not cleanly bullish. On the bullish side, Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-week EMA (a widely watched bear-market line) and spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.9B in inflows—both typically increase demand and can stabilize price action. The onchain picture also improved: new money breakeven moved up to ~$73K and profitability for STHs turned positive, suggesting less immediate downside risk.
Yet the article stresses unresolved technical risk: $80,000 is still a resistance zone, and traders warned that bear-market relief rallies often retrace sharply afterward unless follow-through persists. Additionally, macro catalysts are high-impact and uncertain—Jackson Hole remarks from Fed chair Kevin Warsh and the upcoming US PCE inflation print could quickly reprice rate expectations, which usually feeds into risk assets like Bitcoin.
Historically, breakouts above long-term trend levels during bear markets can trigger momentum, but without confirmation (e.g., sustained closes above key resistance and defensible onchain support), rallies frequently fade. That mix of improved positioning plus nearby resistance and macro headline risk is why the expected impact is neutral.