Bitcoin Reclaims $70K as US CPI Eases — Rate‑Cut Odds Lift BTC
Bitcoin rallied back above $70,000 after the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year‑over‑year, slightly below the 2.5% forecast and the weakest annual reading in several years. Monthly CPI was 0.2% (vs. 0.3% expected) and core CPI matched forecasts at 2.5% yoy. The softer inflation print lifted market expectations for earlier Federal Reserve rate cuts: the probability of a 25bp cut in April rose across prediction markets (Kalshi and Polymarket). BTC traded near $69,700–$70,000 at press time, recovering from intraday lows and testing resistance in the $70k–$72k band.
Market sentiment remains cautious — the Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits in “extreme fear,” comparable to 2022 bear conditions. On-chain and positioning notes show large realized losses and supply rotation: Bitwise flagged roughly $8.7bn in realized bitcoin losses during a recent capitulation and noted movement of coins from weaker hands to more conviction holders. Bitcoin treasury holders hit peak unrealized losses near $21bn, now reduced to about $16.9bn after the rebound. Corporate and large-holder flows remain relevant: Michael Saylor’s Strategy holds over 713,502 BTC (the largest corporate position), and Bhutan sold ~385 BTC recently while still holding ~5,600 BTC.
Technically, traders should watch the 200‑week simple moving average (SMA) as major structural support and near‑term resistance around $72k. Scenarios: a sustainable break above $72k could open a move toward $80k; failure to hold gains may prompt a pullback to roughly $64k–$66k. Weekend thin volumes and seller exhaustion supported the bounce but leave the market vulnerable to selling on rallies. Practical takeaways: monitor Fed communications and upcoming macro prints (CPI, PMI), track volume and on‑chain metrics for supply shifts, manage position sizing amid high volatility and persistent “extreme fear,” and treat $72k and the 200‑week SMA as key levels for trade planning.
Bullish
The immediate price impact is bullish: softer-than-expected US CPI raised rate‑cut odds and triggered a near-term rally that pushed BTC back above $70k. Macro catalyst (inflation) improving shortens the timeline for easing, which historically boosts risk assets including Bitcoin. Technicals support a bullish near‑term case if BTC sustains a break above the $72k resistance band — that would open upside toward $80k. However, meaningful caveats remain: the Fear & Greed Index in “extreme fear,” large realized losses and supply rotation to stronger hands, thin weekend volume, and the 200‑week SMA as critical structural support all introduce downside risk. For traders, the net effect is a bullish short‑term bias tied to macro headlines, but with heightened volatility and a need for tight risk management given persistent on‑chain signs of capitulation and potential for selling into rallies.