Bitcoin Reclaims Key Cost Levels as $96,700 Resistance Nears
Bitcoin has reclaimed the $77,000 True Market Mean and the short-term holder cost basis, supporting a cautiously bullish market outlook. Glassnode said Bitcoin has not closed below Realized Price during the current bear market, unlike the prolonged breaches seen in 2018–2019 and 2022–2023. Although the June low pushed the share of profitable supply close to 2022 levels, aggregate unrealized losses remained smaller. NUPL also stayed above zero, indicating lower potential selling pressure than in previous bear markets.
The main near-term supply zone is $84,000–$85,000, where long-term holders have accumulated significant holdings. Sustained trading above this range could open a path towards $96,700, the average MVRV price and a key level for investors seeking to return to normal or breakeven profitability. If Bitcoin falls below $84,000, the $77,000 True Market Mean may become support again. Deribit options positioning also identifies $95,000–$97,000 as a major resistance area, with positive gamma concentrated near the $95,000 strike.
Profit-taking remains limited compared with the 2024 and 2025 market tops. US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $1.3 billion in net inflows during the five trading days after the short squeeze began, reversing two weeks of outflows. Spot exchange volume has more than doubled from its August low and increased 121% since the rally started. For Bitcoin traders, sustained ETF demand, rising volume and limited realized profit-taking would support further upside, but the $95,000–$97,000 zone could trigger volatility and resistance.
Bullish
The article is bullish because Bitcoin has reclaimed important on-chain cost levels, while several indicators suggest that the rally is supported by genuine demand rather than a temporary price spike. Bitcoin has remained above Realized Price throughout this bear market, NUPL has not turned negative, and current realized profit-taking is far below the levels typically seen near major market tops. These conditions imply that holders may be less compelled to sell into strength.
US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows of roughly $1.3 billion over five trading days provide an additional institutional demand signal. The simultaneous rise in spot volume and price is also constructive. In previous periods, volume expansion accompanied falling prices, whereas the current increase of 121% since the start of the rally indicates stronger market participation.
Short term, the $84,000–$85,000 supply zone is the key breakout test. A sustained move above it could encourage momentum traders to target $95,000–$97,000, where options gamma and the average MVRV price indicate substantial resistance. Failure to hold $84,000 could trigger profit-taking and a retest of the $77,000 True Market Mean.
Long term, the limited level of realized profits resembles the early stages of the 2023–early 2024 advance rather than the distribution phase seen at the 2024 and 2025 tops. However, derivatives positioning can amplify volatility near major strikes. The bullish assessment therefore depends on continued ETF inflows, rising spot demand and Bitcoin holding above its reclaimed cost basis. A reversal in these flows or a decisive break below $77,000 would weaken the outlook.