Bitcoin Treasury Stocks Face Divergent Valuations: MicroStrategy Risks and Discount Opportunities in Trump Media & Semler Scientific

A growing number of companies, including Trump Media (DJT) and Semler Scientific (SMLR), are emulating MicroStrategy (MSTR) by accumulating significant bitcoin reserves, positioning themselves as bitcoin treasury stocks. An earlier warning from analyst @lowstrife highlighted structural risks in such firms, particularly MSTR, whose stock price and financing depend heavily on sentiment-driven market net asset value (mNAV) rather than direct asset backing. This creates vulnerability to sharp sentiment shifts that could force asset sales during debt repayment periods. Recent NYDIG research adds perspective on company valuations beyond mNAV, introducing the equity premium to NAV as a key metric. NYDIG notes that Trump Media and Semler Scientific currently trade at the lowest equity premiums to NAV in the sector, at -10% and -16%, indicating their shares are priced below the value of their bitcoin holdings. Despite this, both maintain mNAV above 1.1. By comparison, MSTR has rallied more strongly in response to recent bitcoin price surges, while DJT and SMLR have lagged, illustrating differing market responses and potentially underappreciated value in the latter two. For crypto traders, these findings suggest that while all bitcoin treasury stocks carry inherent risks tied to sentiment and debt financing, certain stocks like DJT and SMLR may present discounted entry points for indirect bitcoin exposure. However, a comprehensive, multi-metric approach is essential for accurate valuation and risk assessment as the landscape evolves and investor options diversify.