3 Signals Show Bitcoin Recovery Momentum but Traders Stay Cautious
Bitcoin has been trading in a tight range between roughly $89,000 and $93,000 as buyers and sellers battle for control. On-chain data from Glassnode shows rising investor profitability (MVRV ~1.67) and higher trading volume (~$22.6B), but US spot ETF holders shifted from net buyers to large sellers (from $134.2M bought to $707.3M sold). Options markets show downside hedging — the 25-delta skew rose to 12.88%, indicating demand for protection. Momentum indicators point to improvement: the 14-day RSI climbed from 38.6 to 58.2 and supply in profit increased to about 67.3%. Short-term holder metrics (STH-SOPR up 18.5%, Hot Capital Share ~39.9%) suggest short-term holders are driving moves, though many STHs remain at a net loss relative to an average buy price near $109,000. Analysts note macro uncertainty and the key resistance near $94,000 as obstacles. Net takeaway for traders: early signs of recovery and rising momentum exist, but ETF distribution, options hedging and STH positioning keep sentiment cautious — a decisive break above the $94k–$100k area would be needed to shift conviction.
Neutral
The article presents mixed signals: technical and on-chain metrics indicate improving momentum (RSI rising, higher MVRV, increased supply in profit), which is constructive for price. However, institutional ETF flows have flipped to distribution (large net selling), options traders are paying up for downside protection (higher 25-delta skew), and short-term holders remain largely underwater — all of which temper conviction. Historically, similar patterns (rising RSI/MVRV with concurrent ETF selling and options hedging) have produced short-lived rallies or range-bound action until a clear breakout occurs. Short-term impact: likely choppy price action within the $89k–$94k band with spikes on news or large flows. Medium-to-long term: if buyers sustain accumulation and price breaks above the $94k–$100k resistance with declining skew and ETF inflows, sentiment could turn bullish; conversely continued ETF distribution and persistent hedging would prolong a neutral-to-bearish regime. Therefore the balanced classification is neutral.