Bitcoin recovery outlook don worse: Kalshi dey bet for $60K, ETFs don see $4.21B comot
Worries say Bitcoin fit hard to recover as BTC don fall to $63,300, about 16% down for the week, the lowest since early April. Selling pressure dey increase across the crypto market.
Kalshi traders dey price one “crypto winter.” Their odds show about 80% chance say Bitcoin go drop below $60,000 in 2026, and about 52% chance say e go break below $50,000 this year. Even the $100,000 target dey look less likely, with about 27% probability by 2026.
Macro pressure dey weigh down the Bitcoin recovery story. The 10‑year Treasury yield don come back above 4.45%, traders see more than 50% chance of Fed rate hike by year‑end, and the U.S. Dollar Index still above 99—conditions wey normally no good for risk assets.
Institutional sentiment dey weaken: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs record $4.21B outflows over three weeks, the biggest redemption streak of 2026.
On‑chain levels show the risk: $77,800 na resistance (near True Market Mean), while $53,900 na support (Realized Price). Options markets show higher demand for downside hedging, with put options remaining more expensive than calls.
Traders dey watch Friday’s nonfarm payrolls as possible catalyst wey fit extend selling or finally ease pressure. If the data strong, the Bitcoin recovery thesis fit fade further.
Bearish
Di artikel dey structurally bearish for BTC trading. First, e directly show say price trend dey weaken: BTC around ~$63,300 dey near recent lows (lowest since early April) and weekly drawdowns dey accelerate — dis one dey usually make people take defensive positions.
Second, traders-implied outlook strong negative. Kalshi get high odds say BTC go under $60,000 (even under $50,000) which mean market people dey expect deeper downside instead of quick Bitcoin recovery. When prediction-market odds shift quick like this (drop from near 50% to much lower for big upside targets like $100,000), e usual mean regime don change to risk-off.
Third, institutional flow data confirm the risk: $4.21B spot Bitcoin ETF outflows over three weeks na serious demand shock. Historically, steady ETF outflows dey usually match failed rallies and long consolidation/lower lows.
Finally, macro and derivatives dey aligned. Treasury yields rising, USD still strong, plus >50% chance of year-end rate hike na classic headwinds for BTC. Options show elevated implied volatility and persistent put-call skew, meaning traders dey pay for downside protection — consistent with bearish expectations.
Short-term, nonfarm payrolls fit extend the selloff if dem strong (go tighten "higher-for-longer" expectations). Long-term, if ETF outflows continue and BTC no fit reclaim key on-chain levels (esp. ~77,800 resistance), market fit remain in bear-market phase with only tactical bounces. On the flip side, dovish payroll surprise fit spark relief rally, but current setup still favour downside unless flows and macro conditions improve.