US-Iran peace deal eyed for BTC, but weak momentum raises low retest risk
Bitcoin (BTC) rebound is being linked to a US-Iran peace deal that could de-escalate geopolitics and ease oil-risk concerns. However, LVRG Research director Nick Ruck warns the rally still lacks conviction: BTC reclaimed about $67,000, yet momentum is weak and on-chain/volume signals are stagnant, implying a possible “volatile path” if the deal breaks down. Swissblock adds that BTC momentum and On-Balance Volume (OBV) remain in a bear-market regime, with momentum near -1 and OBV around -1.7 million. The typical pattern is momentum weakening first, then OBV contracting, followed by downside breaks—suggesting traders should be alert to another retest of recent lows. Timing-wise, Trump says the agreement is expected to be signed Friday and includes opening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting US blockade measures on the strait and Iranian ports. BTC briefly slipped below $66,000 after bouncing above $67,000, showing participation is fading as traders wait for confirmation that the geopolitical catalyst will hold.
Bearish
Despite a potentially supportive geopolitical catalyst (US-Iran de-escalation and oil-risk relief), both articles stress weak BTC confirmation. LVRG flags declining volume and stagnant on-chain metrics after BTC reclaimed ~$67,000, while Swissblock shows momentum and OBV near bear-market lows. That combination often precedes downside retests, and the recent slip back below ~$66,000 reinforces fading participation. In the short term, traders may see hedge-like bids around headlines, but the broader expectation remains risk-off pressure if the deal wobbles. Longer term, the rally is less likely to trend sustainably without momentum and OBV turning positive, leaving BTC vulnerable to repeated low retests around key support zones.