Bitcoin Ends First Red October in 7 Years; November Outlook Critical

Bitcoin is set to close October down 3.35%, marking its first red finish since 2018 and ending a six-year “Uptober” streak. A mid-month flash crash, driven by US-China tariff concerns, and a surprise 25 bps Fed rate cut failed to restore momentum. Traders are split: some warn of deeper corrections, while others point to November’s historical average gain of 46% and a typical fourth-quarter return of 78% since 2013. Data shows that a weak October usually leads to a modest 11% Q4 gain versus 21% after a strong October, though past cycles saw surges of 57% in 2023 and 48% in 2024. Market participants will watch for a decisive green candle at October’s close. A strong start to November could reignite bullish momentum and support year-end targets around $150,000, but ongoing volatility underscores mixed sentiment.