Bitcoin Rejected at $94–98K; $70K Risk as Bears Gain Momentum
Bitcoin (BTC) came under renewed selling pressure after repeated rejections in the $94,000–$98,000 resistance zone and failed attempts to hold key technical levels. Price slipped below the 50-day simple moving average (~$90,000) and the 21-day SMA (~$91,500), with a potential 21/50-day bearish crossover looming. Technical patterns — including a failed head-and-shoulders and a bear-flag breakdown — point to downside targets near $80,000, $75,000 and as low as $70,000 (roughly a 22% retracement from recent highs). Derivative-market liquidations and macro volatility in FX and U.S. bond markets have amplified selling. Short-term holders have an average cost basis above ~$96,000, creating upward selling pressure, while long-term holders remain profitable with average costs near $56,000. Traders should monitor $92,000 (bearish below), the active investor mean near $87,500, and listed support zones for trade management and risk controls. Near-term direction may hinge on the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve decision and major tech earnings, and analysts warn BTC could close a fourth consecutive red month — a pattern last seen in 2018 — with no clear bottom confirmed.
Bearish
The combined reports point to clear bearish technicals and market structure for BTC. Rejection at the $94K–$98K resistance band, failure to hold the 21- and 50-day SMAs, and chart patterns (failed head-and-shoulders, bear-flag breakdown) increase the probability of further declines to the $80K–$70K range. Derivatives liquidations and macro volatility (FX and U.S. bond moves) have already amplified downside momentum, while short-term holders sit at losses or near-costs above ~$96K, likely increasing supply on rallies. Near-term catalysts (the U.S. Fed decision and major tech earnings) add event risk that could accelerate moves. For traders, this implies a higher probability of short-term downside and increased volatility: manage risk with tighter stops, reduce leveraged long exposure, consider tactical short positions or hedges around key levels ($92K, $87.5K, $80K), and watch liquidity zones for order flow. Longer-term holders remain largely profitable, which could provide support well below current levels, but absent bullish reversal signals the immediate bias is negative.