Bitcoin Rejects Breakout — Falling Wedge Nearing Decision Point
Bitcoin (BTC) attempted to break above a multi-month downtrend but was rejected and pushed back below the trendline, extending the prevailing corrective move. Shorter timeframes show an ascending channel that may offer support and guide a renewed bullish attempt; however, a strong rejection could send BTC back to the major ascending trendline and into the lower portion of the large falling wedge. Daily and weekly charts highlight that BTC is trading inside a large falling wedge — the third sizable bullish structure this cycle after a long bull flag and a prior wedge. Momentum indicators (RSI rising from lows; MACD lines flattening and histogram shrinking) suggest weakening downside pressure and the potential for a bullish breakout, though the author notes the possibility of a significant breakdown if BTC breaches the main trendline. Traders should watch the downtrend resistance, the ascending channel support, the major ascending trendline, and momentum signals for confirmation. Key SEO keywords: Bitcoin, BTC breakout, falling wedge, downtrend rejection, RSI, MACD. This is informational only and not investment advice.
Neutral
The article describes a contested technical setup: BTC has repeatedly failed to sustain a breakout above the downtrend but is currently trading inside bullish-leaning structures (an ascending channel within a large falling wedge). Momentum indicators (RSI improving, MACD histogram shrinking) point to diminishing bearish pressure and a reasonable probability of an upside breakout. At the same time, repeated rejections and the presence of a major ascending trendline mean a decisive downside move remains possible if that trendline breaks. Historically, similar prolonged wedge/flag consolidations during bull markets have often resolved to the upside (e.g., prior multi-month bull flag in 2024), but forced breakdowns do occur under macro shocks or liquidity stress. For traders: near-term implications are neutral-to-cautious — expect volatility around trendline and wedge boundaries. Short-term trading strategies should use tight risk management: look for confirmation (daily close above the downtrend for bullish entries, or a confirmed breakdown below the major trendline for short positions). Longer-term holders are less threatened unless a clear breakdown into the wedge bottom occurs, which would indicate a deeper corrective phase.