Bitcoin holds firm as U.S.-Iran tensions resurface; altcoins rally
Bitcoin trades resiliently despite renewed Middle East tensions. On Thursday, Bitcoin rose 1.2% to around $63,000, while ether added 0.75% to about $1,755. U.S. Central Command said it struck 90 Iranian military targets, coming about a day after a declared ceasefire ended. Crypto initially sold off, but then bounced from oversold conditions and extended a strong late-June/early-July run. Bitcoin is now up roughly 9% versus June’s month-end close.
Altcoin performance led the rebound. LIT gained about 5.6% and ether.fi (ETHFI) jumped around 8.5% on Thursday, with select DeFi names extending monthly gains to roughly 35%. ENA rose about 5.6% but remains more than 91% below its September 2025 peak. ENA’s weakness reflects continued investor retreat from yield-focused DeFi exposure; Donald Trump family-linked WLFI also underperformed, down around 0.5% on the day and down roughly 90% from its highs.
Derivatives data suggests traders are cautious on leverage even as spot demand improves. Crypto futures 24h volume fell ~20% to $191B, while open interest stayed near $106B. Bitcoin open interest in major USD/USDT futures declined, and implied volatility cooled, while put pricing on Deribit stayed higher than calls—signaling persistent downside hedging.
CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season index edged up to 47/100, but remains range-bound as investors wait for a more decisive recovery in the crypto majors.
Bullish
This is bullish mainly because Bitcoin and ether held up and extended gains even after the U.S. launched new airstrikes on Iran—an event that previously would often pressure risk assets. The market’s immediate sell-off faded quickly, and Bitcoin recovered from oversold levels, suggesting dip-buying and improving liquidity/spot demand. That said, derivatives point to a more cautious “slow-bull”: futures volume fell and open interest on leveraged BTC/ETH contracts eased, while implied volatility cooled. This combination usually supports upward drift without a blow-off move.
Historically, when geopolitical shocks hit, crypto often trades like a high-beta risk asset at first, but then decouples if macro stress is not sustained or if positioning is already light. Here, the Altcoin Season index rising to 47/100 plus strong LIT/ETHFI/ENA outperformance signals relative rotation into alts, but the range-bound index level and expensive BTC/ETH puts on Deribit indicate traders still price downside risk.
Short-term, the resilience of Bitcoin around $63k and continued alt leadership could attract momentum buyers; however, lower futures OI and ongoing put demand imply choppy action and faster profit-taking. Long-term, the key driver is whether this rally can translate into renewed risk-on positioning in majors—without that, alt enthusiasm may remain selective rather than broad-based.