Dormant Sales, Strong USD & Privacy Rally Stall Bitcoin
Bitcoin continues to face firm resistance near $106,000 due to persistent selling by long-term holders unloading dormant coins, renewed strength in the US Dollar Index, and a market rotation into high-flying privacy tokens. Addresses inactive since 2018—including veteran trader Owen Gunden moving over 1,800 BTC to Kraken—are increasing selling pressure amid a 20% pullback from the $126,220 all-time high. At the same time, the DXY index has climbed on renewed confidence in US fiscal stability, reversing its typical inverse relationship with Bitcoin and reducing demand for risk assets. Meanwhile, privacy-focused coins such as ZEC (+99%), DCR (+74%), DASH (+37%) and XMR (+22%) over the past month have outperformed Bitcoin, drawing trader attention away. Despite $524 million in net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs, muted sentiment and these combined headwinds suggest limited near-term upside and make a run toward $112,000 unlikely.
Bearish
Multiple bearish factors are constraining Bitcoin’s price. Long-term holders are selling dormant BTC onto exchanges, intensifying supply. The US Dollar Index’s renewed strength reduces demand for risk assets, including Bitcoin. At the same time, traders are rotating capital into outperforming privacy coins, diverting liquidity away from BTC. Even sizable ETF inflows have failed to lift sentiment. In the short term, these headwinds cap upside near resistance at $106,000 and make a rally toward $112,000 unlikely. Over the longer term, sustained ETF growth may eventually offset USD strength and dormant selling, but for now the balance remains negative.