Bitcoin Golden Cross Supports Bullish Outlook

| decrypt.co
Bitcoin rose to about $86,100-$86,757 after softer inflation and weak US jobs data reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve rate rises. September payrolls increased by only 29,000, below forecasts, while unemployment rose to 4.2%. CME FedWatch data put the probability of an October rate hold at 74%, up from 35.8% a week earlier. The shift supported Bitcoin and other risk assets, although stronger inflation or jobs data could renew rate-hike concerns. Bitcoin remains below resistance near $87,354. A break above that level could open a move towards $90,000, while rejection may trigger short-term profit-taking. The 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages have both moved above the 200-day EMA, creating bullish golden-cross signals. However, these indicators lag price action and do not guarantee further gains. Bitcoin is still about 31% below its record high from a year earlier. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $189.84 million in the latest reported daily inflows. September inflows reached $2.65 billion and third-quarter inflows totalled $6.34 billion, lifting total ETF net assets to about $101.1 billion. Net inflows for 2026 remain below $1 billion after first-half outflows, suggesting recent demand has also been allocation-driven rather than solely dependent on easier liquidity. Options traders show downside protection concentrated around $80,000, while call interest is focused between $89,000 and $92,000. Bitcoin’s Fear & Greed Index stood at 68. Traders are watching the Federal Reserve meeting minutes on 7 October, US September CPI on 14 October and the next Fed meeting on 27-28 October. Ethereum and XRP posted modest gains, while Solana declined. High Treasury yields and upcoming inflation data remain risks to Bitcoin’s short-term momentum.
Bullish
The news is moderately bullish for Bitcoin. Softer inflation and a weak September jobs report have reduced expectations for an October rate hike, improving the near-term backdrop for risk assets. Strong spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, positive medium-term moving-average signals and call positioning between $89,000 and $92,000 also indicate sustained demand. A break above $87,354 could encourage momentum traders to target $90,000 and beyond. The outlook is not unconditionally bullish. Bitcoin remains below resistance and about 31% below its previous record high. Options protection around $80,000 highlights downside concerns, while high Treasury yields, September CPI and future employment data could revive rate-hike expectations. Failure to clear resistance may lead to profit-taking and increased volatility in the short term. Over the longer term, ETF allocations and improving trend signals may support Bitcoin, but recent flows remain uneven and do not eliminate macroeconomic risk.