Bitcoin rises on risk-on while KelpDAO exploit pressures altcoins
Bitcoin climbed about 1% to around $76,500 on Tuesday as risk sentiment improved, with traders eyeing a potential breakout above Friday’s $78,300 high and facing resistance near $77,000. Bitcoin’s momentum was helped by easing geopolitical risk from the war with Iran, with U.S. stock index futures turning higher.
Ether (ETH) and most altcoins lagged after a $290 million KelpDAO weekend exploit. DeFi tokens remained under pressure, and sentiment stayed fragile across the sector.
Derivatives were mixed. The crypto futures long-short ratio was near even (50.68%), suggesting traders were undecided on direction. Futures open interest for several tokens (including BTC, SOL, HYPE, BNB) rose 1%-3%, hinting at capital inflows, while ETH, DOGE and ZEC saw slight declines. AAVE stood out with record futures open interest (3.59M), but an OI-adjusted volume delta turned negative—selling pressure into bids—while funding stayed near zero, pointing to a mildly bearish setup. BTC and ETH funding rates remained negative, increasing the odds of a short-squeeze if spot holds.
On venues, Deribit showed BTC and ETH puts trading at a premium to calls, while CME BTC futures activity cooled even as spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted millions—suggesting ETF flows may reflect directional buying rather than classic hedged arbitrage.
Overall, Bitcoin outperformed, but the KelpDAO exploit and derivatives positioning keep risk elevated for altcoins and DeFi traders.
Neutral
这条消息对市场的直接含义是:宏观风险偏好短线改善,对比特币形成支撑;但KelpDAO约2.9亿美元漏洞引发的DeFi风险仍在,拖累ETH与多数山寨,且衍生品结构显示下行担忧并未消失,因此更接近“中性偏波动”。
1)短期偏“多头但不稳”:比特币在风险偏好回升下上涨,并且负资金费率(BTC/ETH funding为负)会在趋势走强时更容易触发空头挤压,这通常对盘中波动和上行延续有利。
2)但山寨与DeFi的风险溢价仍在:文章强调KelpDAO exploit后ETH与DeFi代币持续承压,属于“事件驱动”的抑制因素。类似过去安全事件(黑客攻击、桥/协议漏洞)后常见的走势是:大盘先因情绪修复反弹,但风险资产内部往往分化,资金更倾向于比特币/高流动性资产,DeFi生态仍需要时间消化。
3)衍生品给出分歧信号:多空比接近均衡(50.68%),说明方向选择尚不明确;同时Deribit上看跌期权溢价、AAVE出现“OI创新高但量价差偏卖”、资金费率接近零的组合,意味着市场在担心下行或至少未完全定价。
4)长期影响取决于“事件是否扩散”:若KelpDAO相关资金流、连锁冻结/清算等进一步加剧,DeFi可能继续承压并压制风险偏好回暖的持续性;若市场逐步确认损失可控、风险事件边际缓和,BTC相对强势可能延续,山寨也有机会跟随修复。
交易含义:短线可把比特币的上行视作由情绪与挤压潜能驱动,但山寨仓位更需要谨慎,重点关注KelpDAO后续数据与衍生品资金费率/期权隐含波动的变化。