Bitcoin RSI and Bollinger Squeeze Signal Volatility as 4‑Year Cycle Declared Dead
Bitcoin opened 2026 around $87,500 as TradFi markets returned, with on‑chain analysts and traders flagging imminent price volatility. Technical indicators — a bullish divergence on the 3‑day RSI and an extreme Bollinger BandWidth squeeze on daily/weekly timeframes — point to a large move similar to January 2023. The post‑halving 2025 yearly candle closed red for the first time, prompting debate that the historical four‑year BTC price cycle no longer holds; industry figures including Simon Dixon called this a “new era.” Despite the cycle breakdown, several analysts and executives (including Michael Saylor and trader Michaël van de Poppe) still forecast substantial upside in 2026, with popular targets around $150,000 and short‑term calls towards $90,000. The story highlights mixed market sentiment: technicals indicating a volatility breakout, macro/micro shifts challenging cycle assumptions, and bullish price targets from prominent market participants. This is not investment advice.
Neutral
Technical signals (3‑day RSI bullish divergence and an extreme Bollinger BandWidth squeeze) typically precede significant price moves — historically such squeezes preceded Bitcoin rallies like January 2023. That supports near‑term potential for sharp directional movement and short‑term bullish momentum if breakout is upward. However, the breakdown of the post‑halving four‑year cycle and a red 2025 yearly candle inject uncertainty into longer‑term timing models. Market participants are split: prominent bullish forecasts (e.g., $90K short‑term, $150K longer term) could fuel buying and liquidity inflows, while others may reduce reliance on historical cycle timing and increase caution. Therefore the immediate impact is likely to be increased volatility rather than a clear directional trend. Short term: higher volatility, potential spike if RSI/Bollinger breakout confirms; traders should manage risk and watch volume and macro catalysts. Long term: prevailing uncertainty about cycle mechanics could lead to more diverse forecasts and potentially wider trading ranges until new patterns establish.