Bitcoin Faces a Second Red October as Spot Demand Weakens

| bitcoinist.com
Bitcoin is at risk of a second consecutive losing October, challenging its “Uptober” reputation. It fell about 4.2% from September’s close to October 25, dropping from roughly $83,567 to $80,051, before later recovering towards $81,500. CryptoQuant estimates October returns averaged 18.1% from 2020 to 2025, but seasonal trends do not guarantee gains. Bitcoin spot demand has been negative since October 14, with estimated 30-day demand about 76,000 BTC below available supply. The Coinbase Premium Index also stayed negative, reaching -0.146 on October 24, while CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index fell from 90 to 60. These signals point to weak buying pressure, particularly from US-based traders. ETF flows offered some support: US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $176 million in inflows on October 27, led by BlackRock’s IBIT, after about $773.5 million in withdrawals on October 22 and 23. The uneven flows have not yet reversed the weak spot-demand picture. If selling persists, traders are watching the $73,000–$77,600 support zone, including levels near $77,585, $74,041 and $73,028. Stronger spot demand could improve the outlook. The Federal Reserve’s October 28 decision and US midterm elections on November 3 are also potential drivers of risk appetite and Bitcoin’s price direction.
Bearish
The near-term signals lean bearish for Bitcoin. Spot demand has remained negative, the Coinbase Premium Index indicates weak US buying interest, and CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index has declined. These factors suggest sellers may retain the upper hand, with the $73,000–$77,600 area a key zone to watch if Bitcoin falls further. A sustained break below support could prompt additional selling as traders reassess risk. ETF inflows of $176 million on October 27 provide a counterpoint, but they followed sizeable withdrawals and appear too uneven to confirm a durable shift in demand. If ETF inflows persist and spot demand improves, they could help stabilise Bitcoin and support a recovery. The Fed decision and US midterm elections may also influence risk appetite, but their effects are uncertain. Overall, the evidence points to downside pressure in the short term, while the longer-term direction will depend on whether demand strengthens and support holds.