CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Sell-Offs Ease — BTC Likely in Mid Bear Market
CryptoQuant analyst Axel posted on X that a combined NUPL–MVRV harmonic indicator has moved to 0.33, signaling that Bitcoin may have entered the mid phase of the current bear market. Historical cycle troughs for the indicator typically cluster near -0.5, and current readings remain well above those lows. Charts show the bear-cycle indicator shifting upward, which suggests extreme liquidation events and sell pressure have moderated, but a broad market capitulation or confirmed cycle bottom has not yet occurred. For traders, this implies reduced downside intensity and fewer extreme sell-offs in the near term, but the market is not conclusively out of the bear phase. Monitor on-chain metrics (NUPL, MVRV), volatility, and volume for signs of renewed capitulation or a sustained recovery. Keywords: Bitcoin, BTC, bear market, NUPL, MVRV, sell-off, market capitulation.
Neutral
The news signals a moderation in extreme sell pressure — the combined NUPL–MVRV indicator rising to 0.33 implies reduced likelihood of immediate, large-scale liquidations. That should temper short-term downside risk for BTC and lower volatility spikes tied to capitulation events. However, the indicator remains well above historical troughs (around -0.5), so a confirmed market bottom or structural trend reversal is not supported. Traders are likely to see more range-bound action with occasional sell-offs rather than a decisive bullish recovery. In the short term, reduced liquidation risk favors cautious longs and decreased tail-risk hedging; in the medium to long term, confirmation of a trend change will require the indicator to approach historical bottom levels and be followed by on-chain and price confirmations (rising realized gains, sustained volume, break of key resistance). Therefore, impact on BTC price is neither clearly bullish nor bearish — it points to moderated downside but no clear upside trigger yet.