Bitcoin Underperforms as Holders Sell and Miners Pivot to AI
Bitcoin underperformed major assets in Q4 2025, returning just 5.8% since January versus more than 100% gains in the Nasdaq and S&P 500. A wave of sell pressure has emerged as long-term holders realise profits around the $100,000 level, with spent volume surging each time Bitcoin tops that mark. In October, a single whale transferred over $600 million in BTC to exchanges, intensifying outflows. On the supply side, miners including Core Scientific, Iris Energy, TeraWulf, Bitdeer, CleanSpark and Riot Platforms are shifting hash power to AI data centres under multi-year HPC hosting deals, risking a drop in hash rate and network security. Demand has cooled: Bitcoin ETF inflows have flatlined since mid-July, and US government seizures of billions in BTC have dented its anti-censorship appeal. Some investors are rotating into privacy coins such as ZEC. Traders should watch whale deposits and ETF net asset growth for relief signals.
Bearish
The combination of rising sell pressure from whales and long-term holders, coupled with miners reallocating hash power away from Bitcoin to AI data centres, creates a supply-demand imbalance. Stalled ETF inflows and government seizures further weaken demand. In the short term, these factors exert downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price, as increased exchange deposits and flat net inflows reduce upward catalysts. In the long term, a sustained hash rate decline could undermine network security and confidence, keeping sentiment cautious and capping potential rallies until key metrics — whale deposit trends and ETF NAV growth — show recovery.