Bitcoin Faces Strong Sell Pressure as Short-Term Holders Stay in Loss
CryptoQuant says Bitcoin faces strong sell pressure because most short-term holders are underwater. Short-term holders (coins bought in the last few months) control about 5.7M BTC; only ~8% are in profit, while ~92% remain at a loss. That imbalance creates a supply overhang: rallies are used for “relief exits, not accumulation,” increasing volatility.
On the upside, Bitcoin is hovering near $70,000 while bulls target a breakout above $72,000. But CryptoQuant also points to institutional resistance. Strategy holds ~762,000 BTC with an average cost near $75,600, aligning with where price repeatedly failed.
CryptoQuant further highlights a realized-price reference: the average realized price across all holders is around $54,000, historically acting as a “gravitational floor” during bear markets—even if BTC is currently well above it.
Technically, analyst IT Tech reports Bitcoin has failed twice to clear $72,000, describing the behavior as market distribution. He flags $70,000–$70,500 as the next key support, with ~$68,900 as a major reset level if selling accelerates.
Traders should watch whether BTC can reclaim $72,000 convincingly; otherwise, sell-side liquidity from loss-making holders and concentrated institutional cost bases could pressure attempts to rally.
Bearish
CryptoQuant 的核心结论是：短期持币者中约 92% 仍在亏损，且一旦出现反弹，往往会被用作“减仓式退出”而不是“加仓式累积”。这种“损失—套现”机制通常会在上行过程中制造持续的卖压与波动，因此偏空。
同时，文章提到企业 Strategy 的持仓与其约 75,600 美元的成本区间高度贴合，并与 BTC 多次上冲失败的位置重合，意味着即使市场短线反弹到阻力区上方，也可能遇到更强的抛售/对手盘。
技术面上，“两次未能突破 72,000 美元”的分配信号强化了风险：若 BTC 不能尽快站稳并放量突破，市场更可能围绕 70,000–70,500 的支撑进行反复博弈，进一步下破则可能测试约 68,900。
从历史经验类比，类似的“链上亏损盘主导 + 成本密集区阻力”的结构，往往会导致反弹更容易被卖方接住、反复筑顶；但若后续 BTC 能持续收复并巩固 72,000 美元以上，上述卖压可能逐步被市场消化，偏空情景才会缓和。因此短期仍需警惕回撤，但中长期是否转多取决于突破是否转为趋势而非试探。