Bitcoin Selling Pressure Driven by Short-Term Investors, On-Chain MVRV Near 1.3
A new analysis from XWIN Research Japan suggests recent Bitcoin selling pressure is mainly driven by short-term investors, not a shift in long-term conviction.
Macro backdrop matters. Over the past month, the S&P 500 and Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell about 3%, while the U.S. equities fear gauge (VIX) rose around 18%. The dollar strengthened and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields increased, tightening financial conditions that typically weigh on risk assets. Even gold dropped roughly 3%, contrary to its usual safe-haven behavior.
Despite this, Bitcoin gained about 6% over the same period and remains a risk asset in institutional models: its correlation with major equities is around 0.70, while it shows a negative correlation with the VIX.
On-chain data supports the “short-term flows” thesis. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is near 1.3—well below the 3.5 level often associated with overheating and long-term profit-taking. This implies no broad bubble conditions and suggests long-term holders are relatively steady, while shorter-horizon traders are more active.
Implication for traders: expect higher volatility as short-term positions rebalance and take profits, but the current on-chain signals point to less structural damage than a long-term investor sell-off. Monitoring MVRV and related indicators like Coin Days Destroyed may help distinguish noise from sustained trends.
Neutral
The article’s core claim is that Bitcoin selling pressure is being set by short-term traders rather than long-term holders. That typically produces more volatility than a lasting bearish regime.
On the macro side, risk sentiment has been pressured: equities fell, VIX jumped, the dollar strengthened, and Treasury yields rose. Historically, that mix can weigh on BTC because it behaves like a risk asset (high equity correlation). Traders should therefore expect choppy price action.
However, the on-chain setup is relatively stabilizing. An MVRV near 1.3 is far from the overheating zone (often >3.5). That implies the market is not broadly “overextended” and long-term holders are not broadly distributing. In past cycles, when MVRV is subdued while volatility rises, drawdowns are often more flow-driven and mean-revert, rather than signaling a structural bull-market breakdown.
So the likely near-term behavior is tactical: short-term flows can keep pressure on rallies and extend range trading. Longer-term, unless MVRV rises materially or long-term holder activity worsens, this points to stability in conviction and a less bearish medium-term outlook.