Bitcoin Faces Selling Pressure From 4 Million Underwater BTC
Glassnode estimates that long-term holders own about 4 million Bitcoin bought between $85,000 and $118,000, mostly in 2025. At current prices, the holdings are worth about $326 billion and are at a loss. Glassnode defines long-term holders as addresses that have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days.
The $84,000–$85,000 range has turned Bitcoin lower four times this year. Since January, Bitcoin has closed above that zone on only five days. A recovery toward holders’ cost basis could prompt some to sell to break even, creating potential resistance.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have an estimated average cost basis of $81,500–$82,000. Glassnode puts ETF investors’ average unrealized losses at about $2.63 billion as of Monday; the estimate tracks fund flows and excludes the cost basis of secondary-market buyers. The concentration of underwater Bitcoin holdings may therefore weigh on rallies, although actual selling will depend on market conditions.
Bearish
The data point to potential overhead supply: about 4 million BTC were acquired above $85,000, and holders may sell if the price returns to their cost basis. The $84,000–$85,000 zone has repeatedly acted as resistance, while spot Bitcoin ETF investors are also estimated to be carrying substantial unrealized losses. Together, these factors could make rallies harder to sustain and increase volatility near those price levels.
In the short term, traders may watch the $84,000–$85,000 area for signs of rejection, rising exchange inflows, or stronger selling volume. A decisive break above it could weaken the breakeven-selling concern; failure to reclaim it could reinforce resistance. Similar to previous market cycles, investors who have been underwater may use a recovery to exit, though not all holders will sell at breakeven.
The longer-term effect is less certain. The figures describe potential supply, not confirmed selling, and long-term holders may remain invested if they expect higher prices. ETF flow estimates also do not capture the cost basis of secondary-market buyers. Therefore, the news is a bearish supply signal rather than proof of an imminent decline; broader demand, ETF flows, liquidity, and macroeconomic conditions will determine whether the overhang translates into sustained downside.