Traders dey ready for 12% drop for Bitcoin for September as Solana dey gain
Bitcoin traders dey ready for possible Bitcoin slump for September, as the biggest cryptocurrency don historically fall nine times out of the last 14 Septembers, average drop na 12%. Macro uncertainty and low trading volumes don make sentiment fragile as bitcoin open September near $110,000, push total crypto market cap to three-week low of $3.74 trillion. Technical indicators, like series of lower lows on the broad market cap chart, dey show say further downside risk dey for $105,000 after bitcoin fail hold $112,000. Crypto fear index don climb near 40, the highest since April, as traders dey pay for downside hedges. Options data show strong demand for puts, which mean bearish sentiment.
Alongside bitcoin weakness, Solana don lead major tokens up, gaining 4% in the past 24 hours, meanwhile XRP and Cardano’s ADA rise 1% and 1.5% respectively. ETF flows show capital rotation: U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs get net outflows of $440 million last week, while ether ETFs get over $1 billion inflows. CryptoQuant data show spot ETFs dey hold 1.3 million BTC, about 6% of circulating supply. With U.S. nonfarm payrolls due and possibility of Federal Reserve rate cut depending on softer labor data, traders remain cautious. Until clear macro relief come, Bitcoin September slump of around 12% dey look more likely.
Bearish
Di tin expect say Bitcoin go drop for September come from historical seasonality and di technical plus macro factors wey dey now. Bitcoin don drop for nine of di last 14 Septembers, averaging 12% drop, pattern wey dey repeat when trading volume low and sentiment still delicate. Recent technical indicators, wey include series of lower lows and di failure to hold di $112,000 level, dey suggest say e fit further drop go $105,000. ETF flows don rotate capital comot from spot bitcoin ETFs, wey dem record $440 million outflows last week, this one show say short-term sentiment no too good, while ether dey flow inside to show say na asset rotation dey happen, no be market growth. Options data show say demand for puts strong, this one dey underscore say traders want downside protection. Similar seasonality-driven drawdowns happen for September 2017 (−8%) and 2019 (−14%), wey dey followed by long consolidation, and heavy drops for September 2021 and 2022. Without clear macro relief – like Fed rate cut because US nonfarm payrolls softer than expected – pressure to drop likely go continue. For short term, cautious trading and defensive hedging dey rule. For long term, if fundamentals and monetary easing align, rebound fit happen, but for now environment, immediate outlook still bearish.