Seasonal Weakness and Fund Fatigue Challenge Bitcoin’s September Outlook
Bitcoin faces seasonal headwinds in September, historically its weakest month with negative returns. Long-term holders are taking profits, while ETF and corporate treasury inflows have slowed significantly. Options markets signal growing bearish sentiment: Bitcoin’s 25-delta skew hit 15%, the highest since March, and MicroStrategy’s put-call premium rose to 8.3%. However, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds are boosting exposure—Wisconsin’s IBIT holdings exceed $600m and Norway’s sovereign fund expanded MicroStrategy and Coinbase stakes. Bitcoin’s price remains above its average cost basis (93,000–120,000 CNY range, 550k BTC supply wall), indicating healthy consolidation rather than trend reversal. Similar to gold’s lead, Bitcoin may catch up if Fed easing and dollar depreciation expectations materialize. Weekly MACD suggests a 6–7 week correction ahead, while Ethereum shows deeper cost-basis deviation and likely 5–10 weeks of adjustment in the 4,000–4,600 CNY range. Traders should prepare for short-term volatility but monitor long-term capital inflows that could underpin a rebound.
Neutral
The report balances historical seasonal weakness and near-term bearish signals with strong macro capital inflows. While September’s track record and rising options skew point to short-term volatility, pension and sovereign wealth fund allocations suggest solid long-term support. Traders should expect a 6–7 week correction but remain alert for a rebound as Fed easing and dollar declines materialize. This mixed outlook justifies a neutral stance.