Bitcoin at Crossroads: Short Squeeze Could Push BTC to $75K as Onchain Signals Warn of Possible Bear Regime
Bitcoin trades around $68K–$69K after closing the week above the 200-week EMA, prompting traders to eye a potential short squeeze and a run toward $75,000. Liquidations remain elevated (over $250M in 24h), with whales and retail doubling down on long positions near $68K. Key resistance levels include the 200-week EMA and the 2021 all-time high (~$69K); a reclaim toward $75K would signal bullish momentum. Macro risks include US PCE inflation and Q4 GDP releases later in the week, which could spark volatility. Onchain metrics paint a mixed to cautious picture: CryptoQuant flags realized price and the 200-week SMA convergence near ~$55.8K as a critical accumulation zone, while net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL ≈ 0.201) sits in the “fear” region. Adjusted SORP (aSOPR) recently fell below breakeven, indicating realized losses and suggesting capitulation risk; sustained readings below 1.0 may imply a structural bear transition rather than a mid-cycle dip. Traders should watch short/long liquidation clusters around $68K–$70K, the 200-week EMA, and US macro prints for triggers. This article does not constitute investment advice.
Neutral
The article presents mixed signals: price action and derivatives data favor a near-term bullish scenario (weekly close above the 200-week EMA, concentrated long positions and potential short squeeze toward $75K), while onchain profitability metrics (aSOPR below breakeven, low NUPL) and CryptoQuant’s highlighted realized-price convergence near ~$55.8K warn of deeper downside risk and possible regime shift into a bear phase. Macro catalysts (PCE, GDP) add the potential for abrupt volatility. Historically, similar setups—long liquidation clusters near key levels combined with low aSOPR—have preceded both sharp squeezes and extended corrective phases (notably 2019 and 2023). For traders: expect higher short-term volatility with possible bullish continuation if spot demand and liquidations fuel a squeeze above $70K–$75K; conversely, failure to reclaim/hold the 200-week EMA or renewed aSOPR weakness raises the probability of a drop toward mid-$50K realized-price support. Position sizing, stop placement around $68K–$70K, and monitoring onchain SORP/NUPL readings and US macro prints are critical. Overall, the balance of factors makes an immediate directional call uncertain—both bullish squeezes and deeper corrections are plausible.