Bitcoin’s Bottoming Phase Appears to End — Watch Weekly Close, On‑Chain Stress and FOMC
Bitcoin (BTC) appears to have left a short-term bottoming phase after briefly dipping to about $86,000 near the weekly close, testing critical support and keeping the $90,000 zone under pressure. Traders identify five primary catalysts for the coming week: the weekly close vs. the 2026 yearly open (~$87,500) and the 100‑week SMA (~$87,250); on‑chain indicators showing elevated realized losses among short‑term holders and BTC supply in profit at roughly 62% (the lowest since Sept 2024); roughly $750 million of crypto liquidations in 24 hours; macro and geopolitical drivers including the Fed’s FOMC decision and Chair Powell’s commentary, Japan‑related FX moves, trade/tariff tensions and U.S. political risks; and rising precious‑metals prices (gold and silver hitting new highs) that widen BTC’s relative valuation gap. While liquidation and sell pressure are material, order‑book and volume‑delta data suggest much of the move is tactical liquidity absorption rather than panic liquidation. Analysts differ: some warn that a weekly close below the $87k–$88k zone would be strongly bearish and could retest the low $80k area, while others see the week as an inflection point and a potential buying opportunity for longer‑term allocation. Key takeaways for traders: monitor the weekly close relative to the yearly open and 100‑week SMA, track on‑chain STH realized losses and supply‑in‑profit metrics, watch liquidation and liquidity/vol‑delta reads to distinguish tactical selling from forced exits, and expect elevated volatility around FOMC remarks and macro headlines.
Bearish
The net effect of the combined reports is bearish for BTC price in the near term. Key technical levels—the 2026 yearly open (~$87.5k) and the 100‑week SMA (~$87.25k)—are highlighted as decisive: a weekly close below them would likely trigger further downside, potentially retesting the low $80,000s. On‑chain metrics (short‑term holders realizing large losses and profitable supply down to ~62%) indicate weak holder conviction and increased selling pressure. The scale of recent liquidations (~$750m in 24 hours) confirms elevated forced flows, even though order‑book and vol‑delta data show some liquidity absorption and tactical rebalancing. Macro catalysts (FOMC, Powell commentary), Japan FX actions and geopolitical/trade risks raise the probability of volatile price moves that could accelerate downward momentum if negative. Over the medium to long term the story is mixed: some analysts view current prices as a generational buying opportunity if macro conditions stabilize, while persistent breaches of the highlighted supports would reinforce a longer bearish trend. For traders this means elevated risk of short‑term declines and range breakdowns, with clear technical levels to guide position sizing and stop placement.