Bitcoin Holders Trigger Rare Oversold Signal at $107K
Analysis from Vibes Capital Management shows Bitcoin short-term holders (STH) average cost basis has aligned with spot price near $107,000, triggering a rare oversold MVRV Bollinger Band signal. Historically, similar readings in April and August marked cycle lows. The STH MVRV oscillator fell below the lower Bollinger Band only twice in the past year, indicating significant capitulation. Concurrently, four-hour RSI displays bullish divergence, suggesting a potential rebound. However, a daily MVRV death cross warns downward pressure remains. Traders should monitor these on-chain metrics as Bitcoin short-term holders often provide buying support during bull-market corrections, and the $107K level may act as a critical pivot for a bullish reversal. Key indicators: STH MVRV at breakeven, Bollinger Band oversold signal, RSI divergence. Market participants could see short-term volatility but a longer-term bullish outlook if support holds.
Bullish
The rare STH MVRV oversold signal historically coincided with major cycle lows in April and August, prompting strong buying from short-term holders and marking bullish reversals. The current alignment at $107K, combined with a four-hour RSI bullish divergence, suggests diminishing selling pressure and potential upside. While the daily MVRV death cross indicates some residual downside risk, traders can view this capitulation as an opportunity to accumulate. In the short term, volatility may persist around $107K, but if historical patterns repeat, Bitcoin is likely to rebound, reinforcing a longer-term bullish outlook.