Bitcoin Panic Selling Intensifies as Short-Term Holders Dump; Long-Term Holders Hold Fast
Bitcoin faces renewed downside pressure as price hovers near $70,000 amid accelerating sell flows from short-term holders (STH). On-chain analysis from CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost shows exchange inflows approaching ~60,000 BTC in the past 24 hours — the largest daily influx so far this year — driven largely by STHs realizing losses (coins moved below acquisition cost). These inflows raise sell-side liquidity and heighten downside risk. Long-term holders (LTH) remain largely inactive and have not meaningfully distributed, suggesting the core supply is still being held. Technically, BTC lost momentum after a rejection from the $120k–$125k region and has broken below short- and mid-term moving averages; the $70k zone is now a key support. A sustained break below $70k could expose $60k–$62k. Volume has risen during the selloff, indicating active distribution rather than a low-liquidity dip. Possible near-term outcomes include a relief bounce if selling exhausts, consolidation while demand rebuilds, or deeper correction if inflows continue and macro liquidity tightens. Traders should watch exchange inflows, SOPR stabilization, selling volume, and accumulation signals for bottom confirmation.
Bearish
The article points to a rise in exchange inflows (~60,000 BTC in 24h) driven by short-term holders realizing losses and moving coins below acquisition cost — a classic sell-pressure signal that increases available supply on spot markets. Price has lost short- and mid-term momentum after rejecting from prior highs and is testing the $70k support; volume has increased during the selloff, indicating active distribution rather than a quiet retracement. Long-term holders are inactive, so there is little immediate buy-side absorption from that cohort. Historically, large STH capitulation and spike in exchange inflows have preceded short-term further downside or extended consolidation until selling exhausts and accumulation returns (examples: 2018 and 2022 capitulation phases showed similar patterns before prolonged basing). Key indicators to monitor: continued exchange inflows, SOPR (spent output profit ratio) returning to stability, declining selling volume, and accumulation by LTH or institutions. Until those signals emerge, the risk of deeper correction (test of $60k–$62k) is material, making the near-term outlook bearish for traders who rely on momentum and liquidity conditions. That said, an exhausted sell-off could produce a relief rally; risk-management should prioritize stop placement, position sizing, and monitoring on-chain flows and order-book liquidity.