Bitcoin Sideways Trading Near $70K: K33 Sees Sell Pressure Easing and Bottom Signals
Bitcoin has been ranging between $60,000 and $75,000 for weeks, with price unable to break higher or lower. K33, led by research director Vetle Lunde, says the sideways move may be the prelude to a structural shift: sell pressure is fading and “bottom” indicators are beginning to appear.
K33 highlights improving market plumbing. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows have turned into modest net inflows since late February, suggesting the post–all-time-high “distribution” phase (after last October’s peak) may be nearing an end. Lunde links prior drawdowns to investors selling to realize profits or stop out after BTC fell below perceived costs, creating an “each dip gets sold” feedback loop—now weakening as price stabilizes.
Long-term holders also look steadier. K33 data shows the supply of Bitcoin held for over 6 months is rising again, indicating continued “hold” behavior supported by BTC remaining well below the $100,000 psychological level.
However, the report keeps a cautious tone. Macro uncertainty persists: Middle East geopolitical tensions, higher oil prices, and Fed hawkish signals may suppress risk appetite. Trading data remains soft—Bitcoin perpetual open interest is near yearly lows and funding rates stay negative, while CME futures positioning is largely stagnant.
Net: K33 views the current Bitcoin range as increasingly consistent with base-building, but expects limited upside in the near term until broader conditions improve.
Neutral
K33的核心信号偏向“筑底迹象增强”，因此从情绪与结构上可视为轻度利好；但短期仍缺乏“可持续上行”的交易条件，且宏观不确定性与做多需求偏弱同时存在，所以总体更接近中性。
利好点在于：1）BTC盘整区间内，卖压衰竭与ETF资金温和净流入，通常会出现在市场从派发走向吸筹的阶段；2）长期持有者供给（>6个月）回升，意味着抛售意愿下降。类似历史上“ETF资金转稳+长期筹码趋稳”往往会让下行弹性减弱、波动先收敛再选择方向。
但短期仍偏中性/偏谨慎：1）资金费率持续为负、永续合约未平仓量接近年度低点，说明市场并未形成强烈的做多拥挤；2）CME机构端观望，通常意味着上行催化不足；3）Fed偏鹰与地缘/油价扰动会压制风险偏好，使得即便出现底部信号，也可能以“长时间盘整+缓慢修复”的方式呈现。
因此，交易上更可能表现为：短期反弹高度依赖宏观和资金面变化，若ETF流入与筹码稳定继续，则中线偏向建设性；若宏观再度恶化或资金面转弱，筑底过程可能拉长。