Bitcoin Simulation Projects a 2028 Peak of $413,000
On-chain analyst Willy Woo shared 10,000 simulated Bitcoin price paths based on past market behavior and declining returns across cycles. The median path places Bitcoin’s next cycle peak at $413,000 in December 2028, while Woo said the 28th-to-50th percentile range—about $241,000 to $413,000—is more reasonable and stressed that the simulation is not his price prediction.
The model also projects a possible bear-market low around April 2030, followed by another peak in 2033. Its wide range of outcomes highlights uncertainty: by 2033, the 90th-percentile path reaches $5.8 million, compared with $176,000 in the 10th-percentile path.
Bitcoin was trading at $79,770, below its 50-day EMA of $80,765 and 36.7% beneath its October 2025 record. Traders are watching support at $79,221 ahead of the Federal Reserve decision. A daily close above $81,480 could open a move toward $82,850; a break below support could put the 200-day EMA near $76,382 in focus.
The simulation relies on historical patterns and does not account for changing ETF and corporate demand, interest rates, regulation, or other market risks. Its projections are scenarios, not guaranteed Bitcoin targets.
Neutral
The simulation is not a new fundamental catalyst or a confirmed price target. Woo explicitly cautioned that the projections are scenarios based on historical Bitcoin cycles, and the wide spread between outcomes underscores substantial uncertainty. As a result, the figures may attract attention and encourage long-term speculation, but they do not by themselves establish a near-term bullish or bearish direction.
In the short term, traders are more likely to react to Bitcoin’s price levels and the Federal Reserve decision. The article identifies $79,221 as support, with resistance at $81,480 and $82,850; a break of either boundary could prompt positioning and volatility. Similar historical cycle models have often fueled optimistic narratives during rallies, but their long-range forecasts have not reliably determined immediate price action.
Over the longer term, declining cycle returns, ETF and corporate flows, interest rates, regulation, and other risks could all cause actual performance to diverge from the simulation. The model’s 10,000 paths do not eliminate the limitation of having only a few full Bitcoin cycles in the historical sample. Overall, the report is informative for scenario planning, but its direct market impact is likely limited, supporting a neutral assessment.