Bitcoin Slides from $90K Peak to $70K as Technicals and ETF Outflows Pressure Market
Bitcoin fell sharply from a late-January peak near $90,000 to around $70,000 in early February 2026. Persistent spot ETF outflows since September 2025 and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index in “Extreme Fear” have eroded market confidence. Technical indicators show sustained bearish momentum: a death cross (50-day EMA below 200-day EMA since mid-November), recent 20/50-day EMA crossover confirming downside bias, RSI recovering from ~32.5 but still low, negative MACD, and Chaikin Money Flow at -0.05 indicating weak cash inflows. Futures market metrics add fragility — open interest fell from $38B to $20B in a month, leverage is elevated, and a February 6 funding-rate spike produced a short squeeze perceived as artificial demand. Low liquidity and shallow market depth raise the risk of cascading liquidations; key support is the $60,000–$65,000 range, with losses below that potentially triggering panic selling. Short-term recovery targets cited are $74,750 and $84,900, but sustaining above the 200-day MA near $95,700 is seen as necessary for a durable bullish reversal. The article warns traders that current rallies may offer selling opportunities until structural indicators and fresh capital inflows improve. Disclaimer: not investment advice.
Bearish
The article outlines multiple structural and sentiment-driven bearish factors likely to suppress Bitcoin price in both the short and medium term. Key points: (1) Technicals — a long-standing death cross (50 EMA below 200 EMA), negative MACD, and weak CMF indicate prevailing downside pressure; RSI near oversold can produce short-lived bounces but not trend reversal. (2) Flows — sustained spot ETF outflows since September 2025 and falling open interest (from $38B to $20B) show capital withdrawal by institutional and retail participants, reducing market depth. (3) Derivatives risk — elevated leverage and a recent funding-rate spike that produced a perceived artificial short squeeze leave buyers exposed and increase liquidation risk on reversals. Historical parallels: previous episodes (e.g., 2018 and 2022 drawdowns) show that negative ETF/flow dynamics combined with a death cross and low liquidity often lead to protracted corrections and sharp intraday liquidations. Implications for traders: short term — expect higher volatility, lower supports at $60K–$65K, and limited upside where rallies can be sold; risk-management should prioritize reduced position sizes, wider stops, and caution around reduced liquidity periods. Medium to long term — a sustainable bullish shift requires restored inflows and reclaiming major structural levels (200-day MA near $95.7K). Until then, market bias remains bearish and susceptible to cascading sell-offs.