Bitcoin Slides from $76K as Analysts Lower Cycle-Bottom to $54K–$44K
Bitcoin briefly dipped toward $74,000 before rebounding above $76,800, leaving BTC down about 13% on the week. Analysts now view the move as evidence of a deeper bear phase: prominent analyst Doctor Profit says BTC lost the 100‑week moving average (MA100 Weekly) and produced a death cross, signaling a transition from bull to bear. He revised his projected cycle bottom from a prior $50,000–$60,000 range to a new target zone between $54,000 and $44,000, and expects further consolidation and a push toward $70,000 before the final low. Doctor Profit also highlighted risks tied to leveraged positions and a firm’s (Strategy) cost basis near $76,000, which could amplify panic selling. Matrixport’s update adds to the cautious outlook, noting three consecutive months of net outflows from spot BTC ETFs and weakening demand from traditional finance investors — suggesting BTC may need a new narrative to attract renewed inflows. Key points for traders: MA100 Weekly loss and death cross are bearish technical signals; short‑term downside targets near $70K with a possible deeper cycle low at $54K–$44K; ETF net outflows reduce institutional support; leveraged positions and cost‑basis dynamics could trigger volatility and forced selling.
Bearish
The article cites concrete bearish technical signals (loss of the MA100 Weekly and a death cross) and a notable weekly decline (~13%), which historically align with market transitions from bull to bear. Doctor Profit’s revised cycle-bottom range ($54K–$44K) and short‑term target (~$70K) indicate expectations of further downside and consolidation before a durable low. Fund-flow data from Matrixport — three consecutive months of net outflows from spot BTC ETFs — reduces the likelihood of sustained institutional buying that could prop prices. Added risks include leveraged positions and a firm with a cost basis near $76K that could face margin pressure and forced selling, amplifying volatility. Together these technical, on‑chain/flow, and leverage factors point to higher near‑term downside risk and lower probability of an immediate bullish reversal. Historical parallels: similar MA100 breaks and ETF/flow weakness occurred around the 2021–2022 peak and preceded extended corrections. For traders, this implies a cautious stance: manage leverage, consider tightening stops, and watch MA100 weekly close, ETF flows, and large liquidations as signals for structural improvement or deeper declines.