Bitcoin Slips as Iran–U.S. Escalation Lifts Oil, Triggers Liquidations
Bitcoin is sliding as Iran–U.S. tensions flare and oil prices whip higher, dragging risk sentiment across crypto and Asian equities. The catalyst was President Donald Trump’s warning that the U.S. would strike Iran’s power plants if Tehran didn’t open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. Iran warned of retaliation against U.S. and Israeli Gulf assets and threatened to fully shut the shipping route.
Bitcoin fell about 1.8% in 24 hours to around $68,160, briefly slipping below $67,600 before a partial rebound. CoinGlass data put crypto liquidations at roughly $336.3 million over the past day, including nearly $100 million from failed Bitcoin long positions. Market commentary said crypto is trading more like stocks than a safe haven, with the Fear & Greed Index stuck at “extreme fear” (8).
Oil volatility remained the main transmission channel. Brent briefly surged above $114 before easing to around $113, while WTI topped $100 and was about $99.3 at press time. Asian markets also weakened, including a more than 4% drop in Japan. Analysts linked the move to higher inflation expectations and a reportedly rising near-term Fed hike probability to 12.4%.
Key levels traders are watching: $68,000 as short-term support; a break could expose $65,800. For a recovery signal, Bitcoin needs to reclaim about $71,500. Despite the selloff, institutional demand remains a cushion, with Bitcoin ETF net inflows around $1.43B so far this month. The near-term direction likely hinges on whether the Iran situation de-escalates and on Fed expectations.
Bearish
The news flow is bearish for Bitcoin in the short term because it combines a geopolitical risk shock (Iran–U.S. escalation) with an oil-driven macro tightening narrative. Higher oil prices feed inflation expectations and lift the probability of a near-term Fed hike, which typically pressures liquidity and equity-like risk assets—crypto included. The market reaction confirms this: Bitcoin sold off, and liquidations of about $336M show forced selling and leverage unwind (nearly $100M from failed Bitcoin longs). With sentiment stuck at “extreme fear,” rallies may struggle unless Iran–U.S. tensions de-escalate.
However, the move is not purely negative for longer-term positioning. Reported Bitcoin ETF inflows (~$1.43B this month) suggest institutional demand can dampen drawdowns. Traders should therefore treat this as a risk-off setup: watch $68,000 first; failure likely increases downside momentum toward $65,800. A sustained reclaim of $71,500 would indicate that the market is rotating back into risk and that the oil/Fed narrative is no longer worsening.